Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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917
FXUS64 KMAF 240846
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
346 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A large upper level storm system centered in the mid Tennessee
valley today will continue to move slowly east into the eastern
Great Lakes and Appalachian mountains by Wednesday. Westerly flow
aloft will continue to deepen a surface low/trough across extreme
west Texas today with decent low level thermal ridging resulting
in much above normal temperatures. Meanwhile an upper level
low/trough quickly digging across the plains will allow a strong
cold front to plunge south through the forecast area tonight.
Windy to very windy conditions will develop behind this front with
high winds likely funneling through Guadalupe Pass tonight and
Wednesday morning. Wind advisories may also be needed across the
southeast New Mexico plains and upper Trans Pecos as the surface
gradient tightens significantly in these areas. The day shift
will make the final call. There will also be a chance of showers
and thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday behind the cold front due
to a combination of prolonged mid level instability, enhanced
lift from the right rear quadrant of an upper level jet and an
increase in low level moisture. Temperatures will be much below
normal Wednesday behind the front.

Thursday looks like a quiet day but another upper level storm
system is expected to dig rapidly southeast across the plains
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected
Thursday night and early Friday along a cold front. Temperatures
are expected to be below normal both Thursday and Friday.

Beyond Friday a weak lead southern stream system will produce a
slight chance of thunderstorms mainly from portions of southeast
New Mexico to extreme west Texas on Saturday. The chance of
thunderstorms will spread east into the Permian Basin Sunday and
Monday as a stronger Pacific system approaches. Temperatures are
expected to be near to slightly below normal Saturday and Sunday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will go ahead and issue a Fire Danger Statement for the Guadalupe
Mountains, southeast New Mexico plains, Van Horn Highway 54
corridor and upper Trans Pecos for this afternoon. Min rh/s in
these areas are expected to fall to 10 to 15 percent with a
20 foot wind approaching 10 mph. Fuels will be extremely dry.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  53  59  44 /  10  40  50  10
Carlsbad                       94  51  64  45 /   0  20  20  10
Dryden                         94  65  74  50 /  10  20  40  20
Fort Stockton                  93  52  63  46 /  20  20  50  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  44  59  46 /   0  10  10   0
Hobbs                          90  44  60  42 /   0  30  30  10
Marfa                          87  52  66  41 /   0  20  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  52  60  45 /  10  40  50  10
Odessa                         92  51  60  45 /  10  40  40  10
Wink                           96  54  63  44 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99



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