National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KMAF 191956
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
256 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Extensive low cloud cover has persisted across the area this
afternoon keeping temperatures in the 50s for the most part.
Northeast winds continue to advect in cooler temperatures helping
temps drop back down to the lower 50s to upper 40s (except along the
Rio Grande) tonight. An upper level trough moving across the western
U.S. will increase lift causing light rain and showers to develop
near sunrise Saturday mainly from the Permian Basin south into the
lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. Areas of fog should also develop
along the I-20 corridor in the Permian Basin. The highest rain
chances and accumulations will be in the eastern Basin and decrease
to the west with low rain chances in the western 1/3 of the CWA.
Elevated instability will be great enough that scattered
thunderstorms are expected, enhancing rainfall totals in a few lucky
locations. No severe weather is expected. Continued cold air
advection and evaporative cooling from rainfall help lows drop into
the 50s tomorrow night.

Hennig


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Much quieter weather is anticipated for the start of next week as we
find ourselves on the back-side of this weekend`s trough and weak
ridging that builds through the middle part of the week. A subtle
shortwave sneaks under the building ridge for Monday, which may
fuel some diurnally-driven showers/storms in the Big Bend and
Davis Mountains in the afternoon.

On the heels of a trough swinging from the north Plains into the
Great Lakes, a weak front draws near our area late Tuesday/early
Wednesday. Additionally, another shortwave approaches from the
west Wednesday into Thursday, providing some additional synoptic
ascent. The GFS and Euro ensemble clusters are in some
disagreement in timing of this shortwave and as a result, the NBM
has smeared low PoPs in across the far northern and eastern
Permian Basin from late Wednesday through Friday.

With cool air and cloud cover lingering through Sunday behind this
weekend`s front, temperatures stay below normal before quickly
returning back above normal by Tuesday. High temperatures may take a
short dip on Wednesday in the northern Permian Basin with the weak
front drawing close before returning back to the 80s/90s for the
remainder of the week.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

MVFR CIGs are still being observed across much of the area. This
cloud deck should lift to VFR in the next 1 to 3 hours and remain
VFR through around 06Z before MVFR CIGs return. IFR conditions are
possible at several sites by 12Z with -RA and BR lowering
visibilities and creating slick runway conditions.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               49  56  44  61 /  70  90  50   0
Carlsbad                 52  60  47  63 /  30  40  20   0
Dryden                   62  70  52  66 /  60  70  50  20
Fort Stockton            56  65  48  64 /  50  80  40  20
Guadalupe Pass           50  61  44  59 /  10  30  10   0
Hobbs                    46  54  42  61 /  60  70  20   0
Marfa                    49  74  41  66 /  30  50  30  10
Midland Intl Airport     51  56  45  61 /  60  80  40   0
Odessa                   52  57  46  61 /  60  80  40   0
Wink                     54  61  47  64 /  50  80  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...10