Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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090 FXUS64 KMAF 071720 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1220 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Recent runs have been indicating higher winds across the Guadalupe Mountains in West Texas and the SE NM plains. Went with NBM 90 for 18Z Tuesday through 02Z Wednesday to reflect higher sustained winds and gusts that were better in line with GFS and NAM MOS for GDP. For all of Wednesday, went with just the NBM for wind speeds and wind gusts since 700 mb vorticity and geopotential winds, as well as NAM and GFS cross-sections did not show a mountain wave signature nor presence of mid to upper level jet which would be suggestive of high (58+ mph) winds being able to mix down to the surface during daytime mixing. Today with departure of upper level jet to the east, there is not as much potential for high winds to mix down the surface as yesterday, although we still see subtle vorticity signatures aloft passing through that could lead to gusts near 40 mph during the afternoon. Clear skies are expected today through tomorrow under quasi-zonal flow and subtle ridging, which will allow high and low temperatures to be above average. Westerly downsloping winds allowing for compressional warming will further contribute to the above average temperatures today and tomorrow. Highs today will be in the 90s and above for the area aside from higher elevations of West Texas, most of the Permian Basin, and west and east of the Pecos River in the SE NM plains, where highs will be in the 80s. Lows tonight will only fall into the 60s, 50s over the higher elevations of West Texas and northern parts of the Permian Basin and SE NM plains. Wednesday, highs will be similar to Tuesday, although a few degrees warmer for most locations, especially the SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin that will see more extensive 90s for highs, as well as near the Rio Grande where triple digit readings are indicated. This warm and dry pattern and accompanying increased fire risk will not be long-lived. More on this in the Long Term and Fire Weather discussions. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A broad low churning over the northern Great Plains through midweek will finally begin to progress eastward heading into Thursday, with a breakdown in the expansive troughing expected that had been maintained across the western two-thirds of the CONUS. As this low translates into the Great Lakes, a secondary low on the west side of the aforementioned trough will result in a transition to weak southwesterly flow aloft over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Concurrently, a cold front extending from the low moving into the Great Lakes will move into the region on Thursday, currently timed into the northern Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico just prior to daybreak , then making gradual progression southward through the day. This front will mark an end to our unseasonably hot temperatures, with highs Thursday expected to top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s north and in the mountains, with 90s along the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys and across the Stockton Plateau where locations will see a bit more heating prior to the front`s arrival. Unfortunately, after a few days of downsloping westerly flow beneath zonal flow aloft, moisture will be scant, thus no precipitation is expected to accompany the front. Thursday night through widespread the weekend, northeasterly to easterly flow will continue in earnest in the wake of the front, the aforementioned secondary low progged to remain fairly stationary over the southern Great Basin through Saturday night. Ahead of this feature, quasi-zonal to southwesterly flow aloft will result in increased mid-level moisture, which, given the isentropic upglide regime, will see the return of rain chances Friday into the weekend, especially across eastern areas where moisture will be a bit better. Saturday night and Sunday, the low to the west will finally begin its eastward trek, dampening slightly as it moves across the Four Corners Region. That said, ascent ahead of the approaching trough as well as falling heights will produce fairly widespread precipitation chances late in the weekend, however rain chances remain low (around 10-40%). The combination of the northeasterly and easterly surface flow as well as cloud cover and increased moisture will keep temperatures in check Friday through the weekend, with highs topping out in the 70s and 80s each day, albeit slightly warmer on Sunday. Next Monday, ensembles indicate the low will move into the Central Plains, its core passing to the north of the region. This low`s accompanying Pacific Front as well as the resurgence of the dryline will yield thunderstorm chances from the eastern Permian Basin south across the Trans Pecos Monday afternoon, with the unsettled pattern lingering into Tuesday, when storms remain possible to the east. At this time, severe potential and rainfall amounts remain unclear, however above normal temperatures look to quickly return early next week, with highs in the upper 80s to middle 90s expected for most by Tuesday. JP && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR with SKC. Gusty west winds currently, will diminish around sunset, with most TAF sites below 11kts overnight and out of the W/SW. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 The hot, dry, and breezy conditions continue today, with critical RHs areawide this afternoon, the lowest of which around 5-8% are expected for locations along and west of the Pecos. Recent rainfall has mitigated fire weather concerns for the Permian Basin south across the Lower Trans Pecos, however locations to the west have largely missed out. Thus, fuels there remain dry with minimal green-up, and ERCs continue climbing toward the 90th percentile. Most locations remain just below that threshold, though the Van Horn area in Culberson County remains near the 90th, and given the strongest 20ft winds today around 20-25 mph are expected across the west, and upward of 30 mph with higher gusts in the mountains, critical fire weather conditions will materialize across the same areas as yesterday. RFTIs ranging from 6-8 are expected from Southeast New Mexico south to the Davis Mountains, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon. Improvement is expected after sunset tonight as winds decrease, though nocturnal recovery will be poor, with the only good recovery tonight found across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos given persistent downsloping westerly flow. Heading into Wednesday, fire weather concerns continue, becoming more widespread across western areas as winds ramp up. Exacerbating the issue is the fact that ERCs will also continue climbing, eclipsing the 75th percentile once again all the way to the Presidio Valley. Fuels also continue to dry, with the benefits of recent rains near/west of the Pecos becoming less pronounced after a few days of above normal temperatures and breezy conditions, with even 100-hr fuel moisture across the aforementioned area dropping under the 25th percentile. Given these trends, have hoisted a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday, extending from Southeast New Mexico south to the Marfa Plateau and Presidio Valley where RFTIs around 5-8 are expected. Once again, eastward extent of more significant fire weather concerns remains tempered due to the more widespread wetting rains that were received. Fortunately, a cold front arrives on Thursday, accompanied by cooler temperatures and a gradual increase in moisture through the upcoming weekend. Ahead of the front Thursday, localized RFTI around 5-7 are possible, mainly south of I-10, but given the localized nature, a Rangeland Fire Danger statement looks more likely at this time than another Red Flag Warning. Thereafter, below normal temperatures and lighter winds mitigate fire weather concerns, with the return of shower and thunderstorm chances Friday through the weekend. JP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 61 93 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 60 89 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 66 99 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 65 95 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 59 80 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 57 88 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 52 88 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 62 92 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 64 92 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 61 93 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....84 AVIATION...88