Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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695
FXUS64 KMAF 160847
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
347 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley and another
upper trough is moving over the west coast. Upper ridging is over
West Texas and southeast New Mexico with west winds aloft. Surface
winds this afternoon are expected to increase out of the south and
southwest with a surface trough developing over the higher terrain.
Temperatures will warm up into the upper 80s to 90s across most of
the area as a result. The upper trough to the west will move east
and lift to the north of the area as it approaches the Rocky
Mountains on Tuesday. This will result in strong winds from the base
of the upper trough mixing down to the surface across the CWA.
Surface winds will be out of the southwest to west with high winds
possible across southeast New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains, Van Horn
Corridor, Reeves County, and Gaines County. A High Wind Watch is in
effect for these areas for Tuesday. The watch will likely get
upgraded to a warning for Culberson County, the Guadalupe Mountains,
and Eddy County with the other areas likely needing a Wind Advisory.
Included these other areas to give people a heightened awareness of
the strong winds due to red flag conditions also expected across the
area. Blowing dust will be likely across western and northern
portions of the CWA Tuesday afternoon as a result of the strong
winds. These downsloping winds will allow temperatures to warm up to
the 80s and 90s across most of the area Tuesday afternoon. As the
upper trough passes to the north of the area, a cold front will move
into the CWA Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This will result in
temperatures cooling into the 70s and 80s across most of the area
for Wednesday afternoon.

Another upper trough will approach the region from the west coast on
Thursday. This will result in southwest to west flow aloft with
possible shortwaves moving over the area in advance of the upper
trough. Surface winds will be out of the southeast across most of
the CWA allowing for low-level moisture to increase. The GFS and
ECMWF show this moisture backed up to the higher terrain. This
combination of moisture and upper lift will allow for a chance of
thunderstorms mostly across the western half of the CWA. The upper
trough moves over Colorado and New Mexico on Friday with the upper
lift increasing over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Models are
showing a sharp dryline developing near the NM/TX state line with
strong south to southeast winds ahead of this line and strong west
winds behind the dryline. This will result in thunderstorms, some
possibly severe, across the area Friday afternoon into the overnight
hours. As the upper trough passes over the region, winds will shift
to the north with cooler air moving into the area on Saturday. This
cold front will continue moving into the area on Sunday with high
temperatures in the 70s and 80s.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Very dry conditions will be exacerbated today by high temperatures
rising to around 10 degrees above normal.  Poor recovery from the
Guadalupe Mountains, south through the Big Bend this morning will
drop quickly, with minimum RHs this afternoon of 3-7% common along
and west of a Lamesa, Odessa, Fort Stockton and Big Bend line.
Southwest winds over the northwest third of the forecast area,
especially SE NM and the Guadalupes, will have the highest speeds of
20-25 sustained plains and 25-35 mph mountains, with higher gusts
for both.  There will be lesser southwest to south winds from the
portions of the Upper Tran Pecos, south through the Presidio Valley
and Big Bend, but the very low RHs in these areas will result in
RFTI of 4 for several hours. South winds will be fairly strong over
the Permian basin, which will limit minimum RHs to the east of the
above mentioned line to 7-15%.  Will still have critical fire
weather conditions in these areas since ERC-G is solidly in the 70th-
90th percentile, and RFTI of 3-4 widespread.  Will go ahead and
reissue the RFW for today, but will include Brewster county despite
relatively weaker winds there, since RFTI will be 4 for several
hours due to the very low RHs.  Will extend the RFW until 16/05Z,
but isolated critical conditions may continue in the Guadalupes
through much of tonight.

Poor recovery is expected tonight from SE NM and the Guadalupes,
south through the Big Bend.  Recovery will be good over portions of
the Lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin, but it will not
matter much for critical conditions Tuesday.  Will issue a RFW for
the entire forecast area again on Tuesday as increasing
southwesterly winds will combine with hotter and drier conditions to
produce very critical to extreme fire weather.  RFTI of 7-9 will be
common over the western half of the CWA, with 4-6 extending over
much of the Permian Basin.  High winds are expected in the Guadalupe
Mountains, while Advisory level winds will likely occur from the SE
NM Plains, and Davis Mountains.  Locations in between will be pretty
close to southwest 25-30 mph sustained.  The RFW will extend to at
least 18/06Z with a cold front expected to move south over the area
late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.  Cooler temperatures will help
fire weather concerns a little, but it will still be very dry with
minimum RHs Wednesday afternoon mainly 5-10%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  59  94  52 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       91  53  89  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         89  59  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  93  58  95  56 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 83  54  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          87  51  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          86  43  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           89  59  93  52 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         89  59  93  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           92  54  94  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-
     Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Tuesday to midnight
     CDT /11 PM MDT/ Tuesday night for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-
     Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

67/80



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