Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 191107
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
607 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours; however,
there is a slight chance of thunderstorms for mainly MAF and HOB
tonight. Winds will increase out of the south this afternoon and
will remain elevated into the overnight hours. A cold front will
begin to move into the area 09z to 12z. Lower ceilings will begin
to develop and move into the area around 12z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Hot temperatures will persist again today across Southeast New
Mexico and West Texas as a dryline mixes eastward over the area.
Southwest winds will not be as strong as previous days, so although
it will be very dry to the west of the dryline, only near critical
fire weather conditions are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains
where wind speeds will be 15-25 mph.  Will issue a Fire Danger
Statement for the Guadalupe Mountains for this afternoon and early
evening.  Isolated thunderstorms could form along the dryline this
afternoon due to the intense heating, with any storms that form
capable of strong winds, and perhaps hail since mid level lapse
rates are so steep.

The forecast will change quite a bit tonight/Sunday over most, if
not all, of the forecast area as a cold front in the Texas Panhandle
moves south into the region.  The movement of the front is still a
little uncertain, but models seem to be honing in on a Mesoscale
Convective System propagating the front southward into the forecast
area late tonight, with the northern Permian Basin receiving the
lion`s share of precipitation by 20/12Z.  Strong winds could occur
with the MCS, if not locally heavy rainfall, before it moves off to
the east/southeast after daybreak.  Think the front will move to the
Pecos river by 20/18Z with convection redeveloping Sunday afternoon
from the Marfa Plateau and Davis Mountains to the Big Bend region.
Storms could be severe in these areas as SBCape could be greater
than 1500-2000 J/Kg, mid level lapse rates around 7 C/Km, and 0 to 6
km Bulk Shear of 30kt.

Thunderstorm chances will continue, especially through Wednesday,
due to low level upslope flow, and occasional shortwave troughs
within southwest flow aloft.  Temperatures will warm above normal
Wednesday and beyond as an upper ridge attempts to build over the
region.  However, we may end up on the eastern side of the upper
ridge with occasional shortwave troughs providing support for
continued bouts of convection.  It does appear fire weather concerns
will be lower through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  69  82  66 /  20  50  70  50
Carlsbad                       94  55  87  61 /   0  10  20  30
Dryden                         92  70  88  70 /  10  10  40  30
Fort Stockton                  93  66  88  66 /  10  10  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 86  60  80  61 /   0   0  20  30
Hobbs                          92  59  80  62 /   0  40  30  40
Marfa                          88  51  87  56 /   0   0  50  30
Midland Intl Airport           96  67  83  66 /  10  40  60  40
Odessa                         96  67  83  67 /  10  40  60  30
Wink                           97  64  87  66 /   0  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/


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