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000
FXUS64 KMAF 181731
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1231 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...

No aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will prevail
at all terminals. Gusty northeast winds will continue to decrease
through this afternoon. Light winds will slowly veer overnight
becoming southeast and increasing by mid morning Thursday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front has moved into the northern Permian Basin this
morning and will quickly move south today. Winds behind the front
will shift from the north and be gusty for a few hours before
subsiding later today. Model guidance indicates that this will be
the beginning of a week of near normal temps with highs generally
in the 70s and 80s through the middle of next week.

A surface ridge axis shifts just far enough east on Thursday to
open up gulf moisture to West Texas. This coincides with a rapidly
approaching upper low and the combination of instability and lift
will cause storms to develop in far West Texas. This convection
will move east Thursday night and affect much of the Permian Basin
Friday and Friday night. High 0-6km shear values >60kts will
create some potential for the convection to go severe, but
abundant cloud cover and cool temps will limit instability
preventing the severe risk from going above slight. The storms
will provide some much needed rainfall to the area, with the
highest rainfall totals expected from southeastern New Mexico east
across the northern Permian Basin, decreasing to the south.

The low and precip move east Saturday pushing another cold front
into the CWA early Sunday. Zonal upper flow quickly brings a
return of westerly flow followed by another cold front on
Wednesday. Unfortunately after Friday, no systems will be deep or
close enough to the area to give us any rain chances.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
There will be an elevated risk for fire weather today mainly due
to very low humidities remaining in the area (still below 15% at
most locations this morning). A cold front moving through the area
is shifting the winds from the north, and they will become gusty
for a few hours behind the front before diminishing this
afternoon. Red Flag conditions will not be met today, but the wind
shift, low humidities, and gusty winds this morning will need to
be monitored by local responders. Increasing moisture, especially
with wetting rains expected Thursday and Friday, will reduce the
fire weather threat tomorrow into the middle of next week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  51  75  54 /   0   0   0  20
Carlsbad                       79  47  75  53 /   0   0  10  40
Dryden                         86  58  75  58 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  81  53  74  56 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 73  46  72  52 /   0   0  20  40
Hobbs                          75  45  72  50 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          78  44  74  48 /   0   0  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           79  50  76  55 /   0   0   0  20
Odessa                         79  50  75  55 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           81  50  77  56 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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