Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 231654
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1154 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
mostly be light out of the southeast to south this afternoon into
the overnight hours then switch out of the south to southwest
late Tuesday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A large upper level storm system centered in the mid Mississippi
valley will slowly move east into the Tennessee and Ohio valley
by late Tuesday. In its wake westerly flow aloft will develop a
lee surface low/trough across extreme west Texas today. Above
normal temperatures can be expected today with low level thermal
ridging developing. There could even be an isolated shower or
thunderstorm in the Davis mountains this afternoon along the
surface trough enhanced by topography with some instability. The
surface low/trough will deepen Tuesday with the low level thermal
ridging increasing resulting in much above normal temperatures. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm in and near the Davis mountains
can not be ruled out again near the surface trough during the heat
of the day.

An upper level low/trough digging across the plains will allow a
strong cold front to plunge south through the forecast area
Tuesday night. Windy to very windy conditions will develop behind
this front with high winds likely funneling through Guadalupe Pass
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Wind advisories will likely
also be needed across a significant portion of southeast New
Mexico and west Texas Tuesday night. There will be a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday behind this
front due to a combination of prolonged mid level instability,
enhanced lift from an associated upper level jet and an increase
in low level moisture. Temperatures will be much below normal
Wednesday behind the front.

On Thursday another upper level system is expected to dig rapidly
southeast across the plains with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms expected late Thursday and Thursday night.

Beyond Thursday a weak southern stream upper level trough across
northern Mexico in tandem with upslope flow will produce a slight
chance to a chance of thunderstorms mainly from portions of
southeast New Mexico south to the Big Bend in west Texas Friday
through much of the weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
to slightly below normal Friday through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  57  91  49 /   0   0  10  50
Carlsbad                       85  54  93  49 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                         85  59  95  60 /  10   0   0  30
Fort Stockton                  85  59  94  48 /  10   0  10  40
Guadalupe Pass                 77  59  82  42 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          80  54  86  42 /   0   0   0  30
Marfa                          80  50  86  50 /  10   0  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           83  59  92  47 /   0   0   0  40
Odessa                         83  60  91  45 /   0   0   0  40
Wink                           85  57  94  50 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/


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