000
FXUS64 KMAF 181116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A departing trough and clearing skies this afternoon gives way to
a thermal ridge axis and warm downsloping winds as 850mb temps
reach 26-27C. As the heat cranks up over West Texas and SE New
Mexico, a strong cold front will be pushing down into the Texas
Panhandle while a broad upper trough moves across Canada. This
front looks to be knocking on our doorstep right around the end of
peak heating, and compressional warming ahead of the front may
actually push temperatures even higher. Have gone ahead and bumped
up temperatures to the mid to upper 90s for much of the region,
while areas along the Rio Grande look to be in the triple digits.
The front will continue to press southward tonight and throughout
Friday, likely setting up somewhere along the Hwy 90 corridor by
Friday afternoon as CAA continues, and highs across the Permian
Basin may not get above the 60s. Along and south of I-10,
temperatures in the 70s look more reasonable, and the front
setting up along the higher terrain may act as a feature for
afternoon thunderstorms on Friday. A few hi- res models develop
storms off the Davis Mountains, as is typical this time of year,
which then move eastward into the lower Trans Pecos Friday
evening. The real determining factor here will be whether or not
temperatures will warm enough to break the cap for storms to
develop, so have maintained minimal POPs for Friday
afternoon/evening. Regardless of storm chances tomorrow,
temperatures will be unseasonably cool, and may be our last sliver
of early spring before summer takes hold.

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Saturday night, precipitation chances continue to increase in the
wake of the strong cold front as southwesterly flow aloft begins
in earnest ahead of an approaching shortwave over the Desert
Southwest. Numerous shortwaves embedded in the southwesterly flow
will aid in ascent over the frontal boundary, with precipitation
chances ramping up from south to north overnight, especially
across the eastern half of the forecast area. Despite the
continued northeasterly surface flow and associated cold
advection, temperatures Saturday night won`t be too different from
Friday night, dipping into the upper 40s north, with 50s to the
south, and 60s across the Lower Trans Pecos and across the
Stockton Plateau to the Rio Grande. While cloud cover will keep
lows from dropping too much, it will also be the significant
limiting factor on warming during the day Saturday. A secondary
reinforcing push of cooler air will progress through the area
Saturday, while the aforementioned shortwave translates across the
region Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. While
temperatures in the 50s and 60s along and north of I-10 will limit
much of the surface-based instability, this shortwave and its
associated ascent will yield elevated instability, keeping
thunderstorms with the potential for moderate to locally heavy
rain in the forecast on Saturday. NBM probabilistic guidance
indicates a medium to high (40-90%) probability for >0.10" of
rainfall on Saturday for locations along and east of the Pecos
River, and a medium probability (40-60%) for >0.25" of
precipitation across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos
during the same time frame. This will stand to be the best chance
for widespread rainfall much of the area has seen in some time,
though amounts remain uncertain. Thunderstorms could produce local
enhancements to rainfall, especially where cell training occurs,
but fortunately, severe weather is not anticipated given the weak
and elevated nature of available instability. One thing`s for
sure, any moisture would be welcome, especially after the hot and
dry week we had.

As the shortwave moves to the east on Saturday night, subsidence
will begin to develop in its wake, marking the beginning of a
drying trend. This will be evidenced by low temperatures early
Saturday morning, expected to drop into the 40s for most of the
area, with 50s across far southern zones, and even some upper 30s
possible for portions of Southeast New Mexico and the northwestern
Permian Basin. Rain chances shift south and east on Sunday as
northwesterly flow aloft develops, with temperatures starting to
rebound through the 60s for much of the region. This warming and
drying trend continues early next week as flow aloft transitions
to quasi-zonal, with highs Monday in the 70s and 80s, and right
back into the 80s and lower 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Beyond
this weekend, precipitation chances in the long term are paltry,
though some diurnally driven storms may be possible over the
higher terrain of Southwest Texas Monday afternoon, with potential
for dryline activity following for midweek. So, stay tuned.

JP

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR expected for the next 24 hours, but low CIGs will be possible
just beyond this TAF period sometime Friday morning. Winds mainly
westerly/northwesterly this morning will shift easterly this
evening as a cold front moves through along with increasing cloud
cover. Brief periods of gusts behind the cold front possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               95  52  67  51 /   0   0  20  60
Carlsbad                 95  53  74  55 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                   97  65  83  64 /   0  10  40  50
Fort Stockton            97  60  78  61 /   0   0  40  50
Guadalupe Pass           85  53  71  55 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                    90  49  67  49 /   0   0  10  40
Marfa                    89  49  82  51 /   0   0  30  30
Midland Intl Airport     95  54  68  53 /   0   0  20  50
Odessa                   95  55  69  55 /   0   0  20  50
Wink                     97  57  74  57 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...88