Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 202325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202325
MOZ000-ARZ000-210100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0478
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Areas affected...Southwest and central MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111...

Valid 202325Z - 210100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary
severe-weather threat during the early evening across southwest and
west-central Missouri, and counties east of WW 111.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery showed a progressive shortwave
trough tracking from eastern KS into the lower Missouri Valley, with
the southern portion of this trough glancing the northern extent of
greater instability across southern into central MO.  Forcing for
ascent with the trough and an increase in low-level warm advection
into central/eastern MO through tonight (per a strengthening
southerly 850-mb jet) should maintain the potential for
showers/thunderstorms from west to east.  Steep low-level lapse
rates located downstream of the ongoing storms moving into
south-central and central MO should aid in the potential for locally
strong wind gusts.  This threat should continue for the next 2-3
hours (until 9-10 PM), prior to boundary-layer stabilization.
Despite the likelihood for convection to persist this evening into
tonight, a stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime
heating and weak midlevel lapse rates suggest storm intensities
should wane with the onset of increasing surface-based inhibition.

..Peters.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   36099452 36849457 37879438 38439436 38679304 38739207
            38149104 37499101 36599262 36379309 36099452



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