Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 241838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241837
KSZ000-COZ000-242030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Areas affected...East-central Colorado...northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 241837Z - 242030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A risk for severe wind gusts and an isolated hail threat
will be possible this afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a
possible WW.

DISCUSSION...Storms have initiated within a surface trough in
central Colorado. As these storms push east, they will encounter
richer surface moisture with dewpoints in the mid- to upper-50s. A
plume of steep mid-level lapse rates was evident within the region,
per DVN, DDC, and LBF 12Z soundings. Strong surface heating has also
been taking place with temperatures into the 80s. MLCAPE values are
currently between 1000-1500 J/kg within the zone of better surface
moisture. With continued surface heating these values should
increase. Effective bulk shear values are between 25-30 kts which
will be supportive of some storm organization. Given the steep
low-level lapse rates and surface dewpoint depressions, storms
should congeal with time and primarily pose a severe wind gust risk.
However, at least initially, the steep mid-level lapse rates and
marginal shear will also support a risk for severe hail. MRMS MESH
values have been above an inch with ongoing storms. A WW may be
needed if convective trends warrant.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38330400 38710438 39230438 39490383 39780264 39780155
            39370066 39130066 38360078 37880172 38090346 38330400




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