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000
ACUS11 KWNS 121854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121853
IDZ000-ORZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-122030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Areas affected...Northeast California...Eastern Oregon...far Western
Idaho...and northwest Nevada

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121853Z - 122030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to occasionally severe storms are possible
this afternoon from northeast California into eastern Oregon and
western Idaho.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed amid weak instability
across the higher terrain in northeast California. Additional
development is apparent on visible satellite along a differential
heating boundary along the edge of the mid-level cloud deck across
portions of eastern Oregon. Instability remains quite weak at this
time with temperatures only in the 60s. However, temperatures are
expected to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s with MLCAPE around
250 to 500 J/kg by later this afternoon. This, combined with around
25 to 30 knots of effective shear, should be sufficient for some
organized storms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show very deep
mixing (to near 500mb) which will support some severe wind threat.
The hail threat will be mostly across eastern Oregon and western
Idaho where greater instability and somewhat stronger shear are
expected later this afternoon. Given the expectation for isolated
coverage of severe storms, no watch is anticipated.

..Bentley/Goss.. 04/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR...STO...

LAT...LON   39742155 41572219 43892133 45701760 45631615 44971581
            42901648 41081785 40051915 39711995 39742155