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000
ACUS11 KWNS 232250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232249
TXZ000-240045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0549 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132...

Valid 232249Z - 240045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe storm risk should increase across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 132 during the next few hours. Isolated large
hail (some possibly up to 2.5 inches) and severe gusts to 70 mph are
the main concerns.

DISCUSSION...A couple of semi-discrete thunderstorms have developed
along a cold front draped across The Rolling Plains this afternoon,
where surface convergence is maximized. So far, these storms have
struggled to maintain organization and intensity as they attempt to
get off the boundary. As of 2240Z, these storms are now tracking
east-southeastward off the boundary, into an environment with richer
boundary-layer moisture (upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints) beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates. Here, a long/mostly straight hodograph
(characterized by 30-40 kt of effective shear) should support
supercells (with a tendency for splitting). Weak large-scale ascent
and warm/dry air at the base of the EML have limited storm
intensity/sustenance so far. However, continued storm splits and
related merging may allow for a larger storm structure or two to
evolve with time. If this convective evolution can occur, isolated
large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) and severe gusts up to 70
mph will be an increasing concern during the next few hours.

..Weinman.. 04/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32910124 33020136 33230134 33370114 33480090 33550058
            33539989 33409949 33159920 32729914 32369937 32179992
            32210038 32300061 32710100 32910124