346
ACUS11 KWNS 062007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062007
MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-062200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0654
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 062007Z - 062200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across WW 187 are expected to exit
the eastern edge of the watch by around 22 UTC. Although the
downstream environment is currently fairly stable, sufficient
destabilization is anticipated to maintain the severe threat and
warrant watch issuance across parts of eastern Nebraska and
northeast Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery over the past hour has shown an
organizing band of storms across southern NE into central KS. Nearly
all convective trends have shown signs of intensification amid
continued destabilization and persistent synoptic ascent over the
region. Recent estimates suggest that this line will reach the
eastern portions of WW 187 by around 22 UTC. Downstream, persistent
cloud cover has limited diurnal heating with substantial lingering
SBCIN (around -150 to -250 J/kg per recent RAP mesoanalysis). It
remains uncertain how much clearing will occur ahead of the line,
but continued deep-layer ascent should help steepen mid-level lapse
rates and slowly erode residual capping. Additionally, strong (40-50
knot) deep-layer wind shear with amalgamating/deepening cold pools
should maintain storm organization. Consequently, the expectation is
for this line to maintain severe intensity as it migrates east.
Low-level wind profiles downstream should be conducive for not only
severe gusts, but embedded circulations as well. Downstream watch
issuance will likely be needed within the next hour or so to account
for this threat.

..Moore/Smith.. 05/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   38469771 39619757 41289763 41779784 42029730 41989686
            41759631 41419605 40959562 40129525 39329503 38769525
            38519561 38229624 38139676 38119708 38139744 38469771