Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 142355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142355
NYZ000-150500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Areas affected...Western into central New York State

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 142355Z - 150500Z

SUMMARY...A long-duration freezing rain event is underway across the
region.  Rates above 0.05 inch per hour are possible over the next
3-6 hours.

DISCUSSION...Areas of light to moderate rainfall were migrating
eastward and entering western portions of the discussion area over
the past hour.  Recent observations and point forecast soundings
indicate an extensive warm layer around 800-850 mb (temps around 5-8
C) atop a sub-freezing near-surface airmass with surface
temperatures around 25-32F.  Freezing rain should be the dominant
precipitation type, with sleet mixing in northern portions of the
discussion area where surface temperatures are a bit colder.
Additionally, persistent isentropic ascent across the region (tied
to an axis of 20-30 kt southerly 850 mb flow) will aid in sustained
development of light to moderate precipitation across the discussion
area over the next 3-6 hours and possibly beyond.  This long
duration of light to moderate precipitation will likely result in
freezing rain accumulations exceeding one-tenth of an inch in the
discussion area through tonight.

..Cook.. 04/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   44467587 44297502 44067445 43627442 43087501 42727666
            42357871 42407927 42467936 42717931 43017909 43247860
            43397805 43657741 44467587



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