Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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750
ACUS11 KWNS 220003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220003
OHZ000-INZ000-220200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0486
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Areas affected...Southeast IN and parts of western and central OH

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 113...

Valid 220003Z - 220200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 113
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this
evening across central and southwest Ohio, with locally strong,
damaging wind gusts and hail the primary severe-weather threats.

DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery showed a band of storms extending
from Crawford and Morrow Counties OH to southern IN, moving toward
the east-northeast.  The more intense storms (per greater number of
lightning strikes in 5 minutes) are located in OH (Montgomery and
Miami Counties, and Logan to Crawford Counties).  These latter
stronger storms are located within the overlap of the northern
extent of moderate instability and stronger effective bulk shear for
organized storms.  Trends in radar imagery and surface observations
showed a lake breeze had advanced south to northern Richland and
Medina Counties OH, with the leading storms extending from Crawford
and Morrow Counties to Marion County should track along the lake
breeze.  Isolated hail and damaging winds will be the primary
threats, though surface vorticity in vicinity of the lake breeze and
enhanced low-level shear may support a tornado. These threats may
extend a little east of the watch in the short term, prior to an
expected increase of surface-based inhibition due to the loss of
daytime heating.

Although deep-layer shear is much weaker with southward extent into
southwest OH, residual steep surface-3 km lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km
and moderate instability suggest locally strong wind gusts will be
the primary severe risk.

..Peters.. 05/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39888472 40468411 40628349 40958280 41038224 40798207
            40408242 39828281 39548370 39298437 39298528 39558507
            39888472




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