Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 141440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141440
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-141615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0254
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0940 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Areas affected...east central through southern
Mississippi...southeast Louisiana...and southwest through central
Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 47...

Valid 141440Z - 141615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 47 continues.

SUMMARY...Line of storms from east central MS into southeast LA will
continue to pose a threat for locally strong to damaging wind gusts
and a few tornadoes into the afternoon. A new tornado watch will
likely be needed east of watch 47 by 16Z that will include southwest
into central Alabama and a portion of the western FL Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...Line of storms from east central MS through southeast
LA is moving east at 25-30 kt. The downstream atmosphere is moist
with upper 60s F dewpoints and continues to destabilize along the
slowly eastward migrating low-level jet axis with corridor of
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE already in place across western AL. Visible
imagery also indicates cloud breaks in warm sector, and this will
support further destabilization of the boundary layer and weakening
convective inhibition with respect to surface based-parcels. As this
occurs, a few discrete storms might also develop in warm sector.
Vertical wind profiles with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear and
250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km helicity will support organized structures
within the line including bowing segments and embedded
meso-vortices. Some supercell structures are also possible,
especially with any sustained storms that initiate in warm sector.

..Dial.. 04/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30418874 30928897 31938852 33328772 33648692 33368596
            32358624 31288674 30398736 30418874



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