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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231939
TXZ000-232115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Areas affected...western North to Big Country of TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 231939Z - 232115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A supercell or two should develop across a portion of
western North Texas and the Big Country during the late afternoon.
Large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter and localized severe
gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A high-based CU and small CB field is increasing in the
well-mixed post-dryline air across the TX South Plains. This
activity will likely further deepen as it spreads east and impinges
on the upper 50s to low 60s surface dew points prevalent across
parts of the Big Country and Low Rolling Plains of western North TX.
Initially weak low-level flow beneath moderate mid to upper-level
west-northwesterlies will favor some elongation and nearly straight
hodographs. This should support potential for splitting supercell
structures. Midday model guidance is consistent with earlier 12Z
runs in simulating a sustained supercell or two into early evening.
This will probably remain anchored near the southward-sagging
surface front prior to it stalling later this evening. Large hail
should be the primary hazard, but locally strong to severe gusts
will be possible as well.

..Grams/Smith.. 04/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33600065 33800016 33859974 33719911 33189886 32539905
            32370019 32410107 32570153 32890164 33450085 33600065