532
ACUS11 KWNS 101705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101705
NCZ000-SCZ000-101930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0747
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Areas affected...the central and eastern Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 101705Z - 101930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are likely to develop after 18Z
over the central Carolinas, producing damaging hail and wind through
early evening as they eventually exit the Atlantic Coast.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a deepening trough extending
from southeast VA across central NC and into northern SC, with
temperatures heating into the upper 70s F. Dewpoints remain in the
60s F, but may gradually mix down a few degrees by peak heating.

Morning soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates in place, as well
as ample deep-layer shear with mid to high level flow of 50 to 100
kt. This combination is resulting in a favorable environment for
large hail, and perhaps a few fast-moving bowing structures with
damaging winds.

As of 17Z, visible imagery is already showing developing towering CU
over northern SC and into central NC. The presence of cirrus from
the MCS to the south may have slowed heating a bit, but clearing
should continue, aiding destabilization.

Scattered to numerous storms are expected to form over the next few
hours along the boundary, with both cells and congealing line
segments possible. Some of the more isolated hail storms may produce
large amounts of 1.00 to 1.75" hail, with cold, severe downdrafts
possible as well.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 05/10/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   36477580 36067555 35617536 35267540 34297619 33587712
            33267817 33177918 33237939 33558008 33958119 34068173
            34308213 34608220 34778200 34858121 35068026 35367944
            35677864 35867814 36307714 36477580