Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 272048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272047
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-272245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0543
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Illinois...far southeastern Iowa...and
far eastern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 272047Z - 272245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail and wind gust threat is possible
with the strongest storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating across the discussion area has lead to
the development of moderate/high instability with MLCAPE values
around 2000-3000 J/kg. While anemic deep-layer flow resides over the
area (e.g., generally less than 10 knots through cloud depth),
enough instability is present for a transient/pulse-type severe hail
and wind threat with the quasi-stationary thunderstorms. A
scattering of quarter-sized hail storm reports over the last hour
continue to support this assertion. Any threats would be short-lived
as updrafts struggle to persist amidst the weak deep-layer flow.
Storms should gradually weaken late this afternoon with the onset of
boundary layer stabilization due to nocturnal cooling. A WW issuance
is not expected due to the transient/isolated nature of the threats.

..Elliott/Hart.. 05/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41859114 41809047 41589004 40868939 40868818 40068753
            39408756 37998820 37648861 37678915 38099017 39189106
            40559190 41859114




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