030
ACUS11 KWNS 060320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060319
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-060445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0645
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024

Areas affected...parts of the eastern Arkansas/northern Mississippi
vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 060319Z - 060445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of stronger storms may become capable of marginal
hail, strong wind gusts, and/or a brief tornado.  Limited/isolated
nature of the threat is expected to preclude the need for WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an increase in convective
coverage across the Mississippi Delta region, with one storm having
acquired a noted rotational signature via KLZK WSR-88D
storm-relative velocity data.  The storms are occurring in a zone of
QG ascent -- near a well-defined low moving across northwestern
Arkansas per WV imagery, near the nose of a 40 kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet.  While deep-layer flow remains
generally modest, the enhanced low-level shear being provided by the
nocturnal increase in the low-level jet suggests appears to be
aiding in storm organization/rotation.

With the storms on the northern fringe of a more unstable airmass to
the south, ample buoyancy combined with the aforementioned favorable
ascent should support a continuation of storms, with some increase
in coverage possible as convection shifts eastward into northern
Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee.  However, with severe risk
expected to remain limited, WW issuance appears likely to remain
unnecessary.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34139145 34709125 35049026 35028910 34688847 33588896
            33369121 34139145