Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 200543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200542
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-200815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Areas affected...eastern Kansas/western and central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 200542Z - 200815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Persistent thunderstorms are expected overnight, possible
in several different episodes.  Local/large hail is expected with
the strongest cells over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a small cluster of convection
over extreme southeast Kansas -- moving eastward toward central
Missouri, with more widespread/weaker convection developing across a
larger portion of eastern Kansas and into western and central
Missouri.  The convection is slightly elevated, likely increasing in
response to a moderate south-southwesterly low-level jet and
associated warm advection/isentropic ascent.

While mid-level westerly flow remains rather modest (around 30 kt),
very steep lapse rates (as observed by the evening SGF RAOB) are
contributing to moderate elevated instability (on the order of 2500
J/kg).  Thus, while shear would suggest only weakly rotating storms,
the amount of available instability suggests continued/persistent
storms with the strongest cells capable of producing hail generally
in the 1" to 1.75" range over the next several hours.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37019505 37409537 38219517 38829463 39239348 38959215
            38509164 37739181 36969288 36779438 37019505




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