Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 192036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192035
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-192200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Areas affected...southeast Missouri...northeast Arkansas...northwest
Tennessee and far western Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107...

Valid 192035Z - 192200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for large hail and damaging wind will persist into
the early evening from southeast Missouri into northeast Arkansas,
west Tennessee and far west Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...Modest southwesterly low-level winds continue to
promote an influx of higher theta-e air from a moderately unstable
warm sector into the region north of a convectively enhanced front
that extends from southwest MO into northwest TN. The resulting
isentropic ascent and destabilization associated with this process
is supporting storm development north of the boundary from southeast
MO into western TN. Some organized multicell structures continue to
be observed within the line over southern MO, while discrete
multicells continue over western TN. These storms will remain
capable of a few instances of large hail and damaging wind next
couple hours. There is some potential for additional storms to
develop in the immediate wake of the squall line, but confidence in
this scenario is low given tendency for shortwave ridge to build
into this region.

..Dial.. 05/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37239079 37299000 36808879 36268848 35568907 35819025
            36279108 36729149 37239079




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