Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 132209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132208
MOZ000-ARZ000-140015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...central and southern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 132208Z - 140015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Portions of central and southern Missouri are being
considered for a tornado watch as convection migrates northeastward
into the region from northern Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection initially over southwestern
Missouri has migrated northeastward into the discussion area
recently, although it has weakened while doing so.  More
robust/mature convection persists upstream across western Arkansas
and eastern Oklahoma, however, and these storms will probably pose a
threat for at least isolated hail/wind and a couple of tornadoes
with time.  These storms will be supported by ample low- and deep
shear for updraft organization/rotation despite relatively weaker
surface-based buoyancy compared to areas farther south.  A low-level
jet over central/eastern Arkansas is expected to increase with time
just east of this region, and sustained low-level warm advection
will result in increasing surface dewpoints with time (perhaps
reaching the 62-66F range closer to 00Z and beyond), which may also
support a continued, yet isolated severe threat.

Trends are being monitored, and storms can maintain their intensity
while migrating toward the discussion area, a new tornado watch will
likely be needed.

..Cook/Guyer.. 04/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38529340 38829301 38759246 38359167 37789117 37259070
            36599057 36409161 36569374 37099378 38049353 38529340




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