Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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477
ACUS11 KWNS 232034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232034
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-232230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern Montana...extreme northern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 232034Z - 232230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
for storms developing in the discussion region. Convective trends
will be monitored for a possible WW.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 45 minutes, visible satellite imagery has
indicated agitated cumulus along a warm-front/differential heating
boundary in southeast Montana. Cumulus agitation has increased with
time with intermittent towering cumulus being observed as well. More
recently, NLDN data has also begun to show a few lightning strikes
occurring with the strongest updrafts. CAM guidance has not been
consistent on when or if storms will form; however, the environment
is favorable for severe hail and, given the steep low-level lapse
rates, severe wind gusts. While there is uncertainty surrounding
storm coverage, a WW may be needed if trends in storm coverage
proves sufficient.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   46690605 46700570 46590500 46590464 46520409 46290378
            45880370 45170383 44920427 44650553 44580665 44940739
            45590806 46340805 46620699 46690605




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