Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 232247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232247
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-240045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0503
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Areas affected...the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles...far northwestern
Oklahoma...and far southwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 232247Z - 240045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms across the northern Texas Panhandle and vicinity
are showing signs of upscale growth, which could result in a focused
corridor of marginally severe hail/wind instances.  Convective
trends will be monitored for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms were gradually increasing in coverage
along a WSW-ENE axis extending from Hartley to Hansford Counties in
the northern Texas Panhandle.  The pre-convective environment
supporting these storms was characterized by moderate instability
(MUCAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse
rates, but meager low-level shear profiles.  As such - convection
has been primarily outflow dominant, and some concern exists that
storms across the region will further grow upscale and propagate
E/ESE across the remainder of the Panhandles and vicinity over the
next couple of hours.  If these storms can organize, a risk for
marginally severe hail and wind gusts will likely focus along/near
the leading edge of the activity.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance may not completely be ruled out for this scenario, and
convective trends are being monitored.

..Cook/Grams.. 05/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36970293 37210256 37440204 37740115 37730035 37379950
            36899910 36259909 35469969 34930085 34640204 34860311
            35080328 36970293



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