Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 070640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070639
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-070845-
Mesoscale Discussion 0672
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024
Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Northwestern
Arkansas...Southwest Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 192...193...194...
Valid 070639Z - 070845Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 192, 193, 194 continues.
SUMMARY...A tornado, wind-damage and isolated large-hail threat will
continue from eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and southwest
Missouri over the next several hours.
DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Tulsa shows
the southern half of a linear MCS, located from southwest Missouri
southwestward into east-central Oklahoma. The MCS is located near an
axis of instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1500
to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this
corridor are impressive, with 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity in the 500 to 600 ms/s2 range. This will
continue to support a tornado threat with rotating cells embedded in
the line. Wind damage will also be likely along the leading edge of
the MCS, especially with the parts of the line that obtain bowing
structure. Forecast soundings near the storms also have 700-500 mb
lapse rates around 8 C/km, which will support an isolated large-hail
threat. The line is expected to continue to be severe over the next
couple of hours, as it moves through the Ozarks.
..Broyles.. 05/07/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36669187 36309228 35869292 35209407 35029495 35059543
35219571 35409580 35729563 36019518 36719406 36979362
37189328 37419252 37389247 37299190 36929174 36669187