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000
ACUS11 KWNS 151853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151852
TXZ000-OKZ000-151945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Areas affected...Northwest Texas into the Permian Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 151852Z - 151945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop between 1930Z
and 2030Z across northwest Texas and vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Extensive mid and upper-level cloud cover has limited
heating across northwest Texas for much of the day. However, south
of these thicker clouds, more substantial heating has occurred with
temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s in the Concho Valley. Low-level
moisture advection also continues across the area with more rich
moisture arriving earlier this afternoon. This, combined with weak
cooling aloft, will lead to additional destabilization through the
afternoon.

Satellite indicates the environment remains capped, but SPC
mesoanalysis shows inhibition starting to weaken, a trend which will
continue over the next 1 to 2 hours. The first wave of ascent can be
seen on water vapor approaching the New Mexico/Texas border. As this
overspreads the dryline, localized breaching of the CAP should be
sufficient for storm development where temperatures have warmed in
to the mid to upper 80s. This timing matches preferred 12Z CAM
guidance (NSSL MPAS) and the 17Z WoFS. Moderate to strong
instability combined with 60+ knots of effective shear will support
supercells, with an initial threat for large hail (up to baseball
size) and severe wind gusts (up to 75 mph). However, by later this
evening, the tornado threat will increase as the low-level jet
intensifies and STP values increase to 2 to 3 (per 17Z WoFS). A
tornado watch will be needed in the next 1 to 2 hours.

..Bentley/Smith.. 04/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   34539958 34580005 34100087 33430152 32900168 31600179
            31090145 31390010 32699919 33979886 34279907 34539958