Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231755
MEZ000-232030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Areas affected...Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231755Z - 232030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal threat for wind damage and hail will continue
across parts of southern and eastern Maine this afternoon. Weather
watch issuance is not expected across the region.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across
eastern Maine with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s F. This
combined with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s F is contributing
to weak instability ahead of the front. Thunderstorms have developed
over the last hour along the front near August, ME. This activity is
being supported by large-scale ascent associated with an approaching
shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. Regional WSR-88D
VWPs show moderate to strong deep-layer shear suggesting that a
marginal severe threat will continue this afternoon. As the storms
move eastward into the coastal areas, stronger low-level convergence
near the coast should help maintain intensity with the convection.
Although marginally severe wind and hail will be possible, the
potential is not expected to be great enough to warrant weather
watch issuance.

..Broyles/Hart.. 05/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   44536764 44156886 43517048 43817093 44397100 45087058
            45426915 45106798 44536764




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