Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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569 ACUS11 KWNS 071748 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071748 OHZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-071915- Mesoscale Discussion 0677 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Areas affected...southern OH...eastern KY...and western WV Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071748Z - 071915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado and locally damaging wind threat should persist into late afternoon with the remnants of an earlier MCS that may contain transient, weak supercell structures. Greater severe threat is expected later into the evening. DISCUSSION...Remnants of a largely decaying MCS/QLCS have persisted across southwest OH into eastern KY, supported by downstream boundary-layer heating with 17Z surface temperatures commonly in the mid to upper 70s. Amid a modest combination of mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear, convection has struggled to intensify as MLCAPE has increased to 500-1500 J/kg. Nevertheless, moderate low-level SRH (0-1 km of 100-150 m2/s2) should be adequate to support transient, lower-end updraft rotation within embedded updrafts that spread east amid the larger-scale decaying cluster. A more favorable environment for supercells is anticipated this evening in the wake of this afternoon convection. ..Grams/Smith.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 39298401 39698344 39758287 39658210 39258175 38708171 37828191 37418216 36968249 36578341 36588401 37228394 39298401