095
ACUS11 KWNS 070100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070100
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0664
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...Northeast OK into southeast KS and extreme
southwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 070100Z - 070230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The tornado threat will increase through the evening.
Local extension of WW 189 may be needed, with Tornado Watch issuance
eventually expected downstream.

DISCUSSION...Convective showers are beginning to increase from
central/northeast OK into southeast KS, ahead of the primary
corridor of supercells to the southwest. With a continued increase
of the low-level jet expected into the evening, there will be some
potential for these showers to deepen into mature supercells with
time, within a very favorable environment characterized by MLCAPE in
excess of 2000 J/kg and strong low-level and deep-layer shear.
Should this occur, some increase in tornado potential will be
possible through mid evening, with an increase in storm coverage
later tonight as ongoing supercells across OK and far southern KS
spread east-northeastward.

Local extension of WW 189 may be needed across parts of northeast
OK/southeast KS in the short term. New Tornado Watch issuance will
eventually be needed farther northeast, extending into southwest MO.
Timing of the new watch will be dependent on the evolution of
developing cells ahead of the main cluster of convection to the
west.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36059690 37479619 37659594 37769545 37819496 37759432
            37709419 36649443 36329472 36089507 35889571 35879606
            36059690