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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMEG 210246
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
946 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 937 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Minor adjustments were made to overnight PoPs as this first round
of rain comes to a close. As another weak shortwave trough moves
through the area, a second round of showers is expected to surge
up through the ArkLaMiss overnight tonight. Moisture nor
instability look sufficient enough to produce anything but light
scattered showers through sunrise with less than a tenth of an
inch of QPF. Once the sun rises tomorrow, dry conditions will
return and remain in place for much of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Cool temperatures are the biggest story weather-wise over the
next seven days. Monday should be the coolest morning featuring
low temperatures in the middle 30s to low 40s. Frost is possible
in portions of west Tennessee, mainly near the Tennessee River.
Otherwise, gradual warming is expected tomorrow(Sunday) afternoon
through Midweek along with gradually warming temperatures. High
temperatures should approach 80 degrees by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Zonal flow is in place across the middle and lower Mississippi
River Valley. Weak impulses moving through the westerly flow will
result in another round of elevated showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly in north Mississippi. The
HRRR is a bit of an outlier shifting most of the precip into
Alabama well before midnight. That may be a bit optimistic based
on current radar. Showers and thunderstorms stretch as far west as
the Texas Panhandle. However, high pressure should build into the
Midsouth from the northwest tonight and should shift the storm
track farther south. Confidence is higher that rain will continue
through much of the night, shifting out of the region before
sunrise. Sunday should be mostly dry, especially after midday with
dry conditions continuing through midweek.

Cool conditions are expected tonight and Monday morning with frost
possible near the Tennessee River Monday morning. Most of the
Midsouth will be in the middle to upper 30s. High temperatures
should be in the low to middle 60s tomorrow and in the middle to
upper 60s Monday.

A positively tilted trough will swing across the Mississippi River
Valley early Monday and surface high pressure should shift east of
the area Monday afternoon. This will mark the beginning of a
gradual warming trend next week. High temperatures should be in
the middle 70s by Wednesday and near 80 degrees by Friday.

A ridge will build over the eastern Rockies and Plains after
midweek setting up northwest flow across the Midsouth. However,
guidance is in poor agreement during this time frame. For now we
will carry low pops Thursday into Friday and and see how things
develop in subsequent model runs before increasing or removing
PoPs late in the work week.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

An area of rain will push across TUP over the next couple of hours
otrw VFR conds will prevail throughout the period. A few more
SHRAs are possible south of I-40 later tonight but aviation
impacts will be limited. NNE winds at 8-10 kts will increase to
10-14 kts early Sunday morning with gusts 16-22 kts.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...SJM