Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 240858
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
358 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Another dry day will unfold across the Mid-South today with
afternoon highs in mid to upper 60s. Conditions will change on
Monday as a strong upper level low treks across the Central
Plains. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the primary
concerns with this system. A High Wind Watch has been issued for
the entire Mid-South on Monday. Quieter conditions return by
midweek with a warming trend in place for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Expect dry conditions to prevail today as an area of high
pressure, currently centered over the Great Lakes Region, slowly
pushes eastward. By midday, winds will veer to the southwest and
begin advecting warm and moist air back to the Mid-South. As a
result, expect afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s.

On Monday, an unsettled upper air pattern will exist over the
Intermountain West region. Several disturbances will eject
eastward at this time, with both the GFS/ECMWF depicting an upper
level low and attendant cold front developing over the Central
Plains. As this system treks northeast, the pressure gradient
across the Mid-South will tighten significantly. Several models
depict a 10 mb spread across the area by Monday afternoon. At
this time, the NBM places a stout area of 35-40 mph sustained
winds in areas along and west of the Mississippi River. In
addition, WSUP Viewer analysis depicts a 50% chance of greater
than 40 mph sustained winds in place over eastern Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel Monday evening. Additional probabilities at and
above 50% exist in portions of Mississippi for wind gusts of 58
mph. Therefore, a High Wind Watch has been issued from 7AM Monday
to 1AM Tuesday. As the event gets closer in time, expect areas of
this watch to either be upgraded to a High Wind Warning or
downgraded to a Wind Advisory.

Additional concerns on Monday exist regarding heavy rainfall
potential as precipitable water values climb to around 1.5 inches
ahead of the aforementioned system. Latest CAMs depict a near
vertical line of showers and isolated thunderstorms pushing into
the area Monday evening. Efficient rainfall rates will be possible
as this line moves through the area. As such, the Weather
Prediction Center has outlined the majority of the Mid-South in a
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Overall storm totals from this
system have decreased since Saturday`s forecast, with around 1-2
inches of rain anticipated. Regardless, a flooding threat still
exists as heavy rains may aggravate rivers and streams.

Rain free conditions return on Wednesday as a cold front swings
across the region. A warming trend will be in place for the end of
the week with afternoon highs in the 70s by Friday.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

VFR conditions at all sites through the TAF cycle. East winds,
generally 6-10kt tonight will shift from the southeast tomorrow
and increase to around 10kts, then 10-15kt tomorrow night ahead
of the next storm system developing in the Plains. Wind shear is
expected tomorrow (Sunday) night, likely developing just before
midnight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
     for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
     for MOZ113-115.

MS...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
     for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
     for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS


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