-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
435
FXUS64 KMEG 011714
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1214 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

No major update needed. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s
this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. New zone forecast is
available.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Dry conditions with above normal temperatures will persist
through Thursday morning as high pressure remains in place.
Showers and thunderstorms will return to the Mid-South by
Thursday afternoon and continue through the weekend as a stalled
front remains over the region. Unsettled weather is expected to
continue for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South early this morning
with temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. High pressure is
centered over the Alabama/Georgia border at this time.

With high pressure remaining to the east of the region, dry
weather will continue for today and tonight. Temperatures will
remain above normal today with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Another warm night is expected with lows Thursday morning in the
low to mid 60s.

A cold front will push into the central and southern Plains on
Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of
the front with some of the activity expected to move into western
sections of the Mid-South. Temperatures will remain quite warm for
early May with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

As the cold front inches reaches central Arkansas by Friday
morning, showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread
across the Mid-South for Thursday night. This cold front will
move into the region on Friday and not exit the Mid-South until
Saturday evening. This will mean more showers and thunderstorms
are expected during this period. With additional clouds and rain,
temperatures will be a little cooler for much of the weekend.

A second cold front will move into the region on Sunday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected for Saturday night
and Sunday. By Monday, the frontal boundaries will have fallen
apart. Unsettled weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as
weak upper level disturbances move through the region which could
produce some additional showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
will return back to above normal levels for both days.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR across the Mid-South this morning. An MCV over western AR
will track across NE AR and the MO Bootheel this evening and this
feature could kick off a few SHRAs and perhaps a TSRA. Not
confident enough to add to the JBR TAF attm but something to
watch. Otrw expect quiet weather to continue into Thursday
afternoon when the next disturbance will push into the area with
isolated-scattered SHRAs and TSRAs.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...SJM