000
FXUS64 KMEG 171727
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A few showers and thunderstorms will persist across northeast
Mississippi this morning before a brief lull in shower activity
begins. The unsettled weather pattern will resume on Thursday as
another low pressure system approaches the region. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening, some may be strong to
severe. Another round of showers and storms will exist to start
the weekend before dry and cool conditions return Sunday to start
the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A deep upper level low over the upper Midwest stretches a cold front
through northwest Arkansas. Storms are slowly tapering off as the
forcing behind the boundary is weakening. An anticipated stall
of this cold front will provide a lull in shower activity late this
afternoon. There exists a low confidence Marginal Risk for severe
weather today for the eastern half of the Mid-South. Based on
current radar trends, instability is very limited and storm
development is low. As cloud coverage continues, surface based
instability will be limited for convection to refire up. A few
storms may be strong to severe in the general vicinity of Monroe
County, MS, and surrounding counties late this morning into early
afternoon. Any storms that do develop, gusty or damaging winds will
be the primary threat.

A secondary low pressure system from the Baja region will bring
another chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday. This low
pressure system will interact with the stalled boundary and push
towards the region. Slight and Marginal Risks exist for the Mid-
South with the slight risk encompassing portions of northeast
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. The brief lull in precipitation
on Wednesday will provide atmosphere destabilization supportive of
severe weather. SBCAPE ~1500 J/kg with lapse rates nearing 7C/km are
indicative of primary threats to be damaging wind and hail.
Deterministic soundings are also indicating 0-1km SRH values near or
just barely exceeding 200 m^2/s^2, which means a low, but non-zero
tornado threat. There is still a bit of model discrepancy of timing
and the heaviest rainfall axis, so we will continue to monitor this
closely.

The LLJ is weak which results in this secondary frontal boundary to
also be slow moving. Showers will begin to arrive Thursday evening
and persist through Friday afternoon. Another brief lull of shower
activity before another round of showers and thunderstorms
approaches Saturday. After this round of showers, high pressure will
gradually begin to slide in by Sunday to return rainfree conditions.
Cooler temperatures are associated with the high as lows Sunday and
Monday morning are forecast to be in the 40s. Monday will feel much
cooler as dry air and brisk northerly winds will prevail.
Temperatures will begin to warm back to near and above climatology
early next week.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Satellite imagery depicts an area of clearing skies situated over
southeast MO, advancing towards the Mid-South. Skies should begin
to scatter out this afternoon / evening before an MVFR deck
develops overnight. MVFR CIGs look to be relatively short-lived
with VFR returning by midmorning. Otherwise, expect winds to slow
overnight before gusting up to 20kts past sunrise.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...ANS