000
FXUS64 KMEG 211115
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
615 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A large area of high pressure will cover much of the central U.S.
today with dry weather and below normal temperatures by this
afternoon. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s early
Monday morning with frost possible over portions of west
Tennessee, mainly near the Tennessee River. A warming trend will
start on Monday and continuing through Wednesday. A few
thunderstorms will be possible over northern sections of the Mid-
South on Tuesday and Thursday with a higher chance of rain for
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Skies are mostly cloudy across the Mid-South early this morning
with temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few light rain
showers are moving across areas near and just south of I-40.
These showers are due to an upper level disturbance moving across
central Mississippi.

As the disturbance moves east of the region, rain will move out of
the Mid-South later this morning. With high pressure moving south
into Oklahoma, north winds will bring drier and colder air into
the region. Temperatures will be some 15 degrees below normal with
highs this afternoon in the low to mid 60s. The high will move
east reaching the Mid-South by Monday morning. With clear skies
and light winds, temperatures will drop into the mid 30s to lower
40s by Monday morning. Some areas of west Tennessee near the
Tennessee River could see some frost and a Frost Advisory may be
needed.

As high pressure moves east of the region on Monday, winds will
start shifting to the south bringing warmer air into the region.
Temperatures will be warmer on Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 60s. Dry weather will continue into Monday night with milder
temperatures expected.

A weak cold front will approach the region from the north on
Tuesday, then move through the Mid-South Tuesday night and
Wednesday. A few showers are possible over northern sections of
the region for Tuesday and Tuesday night. The front will be south
of the Mid-South on Wednesday with dry weather and slightly cooler
temperatures.

The front will lift north as a warm front with showers and
thunderstorms possible for Thursday. With warmer air in place for
Friday and Saturday, more scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Rain showers continue to push across north Mississippi along a
shortwave trough. This activity should only effect TUP until
approximately 14z. High pressure will slowly slide into the region
and gradually clear skies out with northeast winds.

LAV guidance seems a bit hot as other guidance doesn`t hint at
gusts >20kts or gusty conditions to occur after 18z.

DNM


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...DNM