-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
669
FXUS62 KMFL 291637
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1237 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1219 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

South Florida remains on the periphery of surface high pressure
centered over the western Atlantic coast off the Carolinas. Aloft,
a ridge will shift eastward as a trough enters the southeastern
United States. The easterly to southeasterly wind flow will
continue but with the gradient diminishing as the high weakens and
the trough moves closer, the speed will also diminish.

Shallow showers are the main convection today though a Gulf sea
breeze could enable some more stout convection over parts of
Southwest Florida this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances are too low
to mention but will increase by Tuesday afternoon thanks in part
to the mid-level support, the sea breeze development, and the
available moisture.

Temperatures will peak in the 80s with lower 80s along the
Atlantic coast and upper 80s across Southwest Florida. The
overnight low will be in the 60s except for lower to mid 70s
across the east coast metro areas.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Long term begins with mid level ridging over the eastern seaboard
gradually migrating into the western Atlantic, while persisting
sfc high pressure keeping a relatively stable air mass over South
Florida through at least the middle of the work week. As the mid
level ridge moves further away from the region, pressure gradients
across the area will relax and allow for the breezy periods to
subside. Meanwhile, low-lvl winds across South Florida gradually
veer SE by this time, allowing for a very modest moisture
advection to briefly raise chances of rain into the teens to low
20s, mainly over the east coast and interior areas. But showers in
general will remain very limited through the long term as
relatively dry/stable air stays in place.

Afternoon high temperatures through Wednesday are expected to reach
the low-mid 80s near the coasts, and upper 80s to around 90
inland. Then by the end of the work week, the mid level ridge
strengthens and drives high temperatures into the upper 80s near
the coasts and low 90s inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Mainly VFR through the period though brief bouts of sub-VFR are
possible with Atlantic showers. A seabreeze is possible in the
afternoons, which could bring some showers (and maybe a
thunderstorm) around APF. Gusty easterly wind flow should
diminish gradually through the period.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 1219 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Conditions will continue to improve today as winds and seas
gradually decrease. Calmer conditions should return for the middle
of this week.
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&&

.BEACHES...
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Issued at 1219 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A high risk of rip currents will linger across the Atlantic
beaches through mid week. Conditions may start to improve towards
the end of the week as onshore flow decreases, however, the rip
current risk may potentially remain elevated during this time
frame.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Miami            73  83  73  84 /  30  40  30  30
West Kendall     69  84  69  85 /  20  40  20  30
Opa-Locka        71  85  71  84 /  30  40  30  30
Homestead        72  84  71  84 /  20  30  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  73  82  73  83 /  30  40  30  30
N Ft Lauderdale  72  82  72  83 /  30  40  30  30
Pembroke Pines   72  85  72  84 /  30  40  30  30
West Palm Beach  70  82  69  84 /  20  40  20  20
Boca Raton       71  84  71  83 /  30  40  30  30
Naples           68  86  70  86 /  20  30  20  20
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&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...RAG