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572
FXUS62 KMFL 190523
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
123 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

A hot and humid day is on tap across much of South Florida as a mid-
level ridge continues to slide across the area, being pushed along
by a shortwave moving along the northern Gulf states. The ridge will
continue to keep conditions mostly dry, however, scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity will be possible for coastal locations,
primarily on the Atlantic side as the sea breeze boundary pushes
inland in the afternoon and early evening hours. Steep low-level
lapse rates and enhanced shear along the sea breeze could support
stronger storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and small
hail, although is viewed as unlikely.

With south-southwest flow and warming air mass from the overhead
ridge, high temperatures today will peak in the mid to upper 90s
across much of South Florida, with heat index values up to 110
possible. Heat Advisories have been issued for all counties due to
the hazardous conditions. Anyone sensitive to heat should plan to
avoid extended time outside, and if you are required to be outside,
take cooling breaks and stay hydrated.

On Sunday, the aforementioned shortwave and associated frontal
boundary will slowly spread over the Florida Peninsula, kicking the
ridge offshore into the Atlantic. This will lead to greater
instability and better chances for showers and thunderstorms across
the area, especially during the afternoon and evening hours when the
sea breeze develops. The extra instability assisted by the
shortwave along with the trough ushering in cooler temps aloft (-8
to -10 deg C) could enhance severe thunderstorm potential. Strong
to damaging wind gusts due to storm strength or downbursts plus
small to large hail will all be possible. Conditions will be
monitored tonight for adequate assessment of the hazards with any
convective storms tomorrow. Overall, the highest chances for
showers and storms will be in northern portions of South Florida
as low level flow will be southerly. PoPs around 60-70% are
forecasted for Hendry, Glades, Palm Beach and Broward counties
with mostly 40-50% PoPs elsewhere further south. Additionally,
even with the increased cloud cover and a slightly cooler air mass
compared to Saturday, heat will yet again be a concern as south-
southwest flow persists over South Florida for much of the day
ahead of the frontal boundary. High temperatures will be in the
low to mid-90s, with heat index values ranging from 103-108. Heat
advisories may be needed yet again for certain areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

The upper level trough will slowly move eastward across the area in
the early to mid week time frame. Several impulses will move across
the area which will keep elevated chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast each day, with PoPs peaking during the
afternoon and early evening hours each day. The trough will finally
start to make some progress late in the week pulling away from FL
which will reduce rain/storm chances overall, however widely
scattered diurnal sea-breeze driven storms will still be possible
through Friday.

Temperatures will remain above normal next week, however a more
easterly flow will provide a bit of relief for the east coast metro.
Still looking at highs each day in the upper 80s to lower 90s across
the east coast metro and low to mid 90s for the Interior and SW FL.
Overnight lows will be closer to climatological lows ranging from
around 70 near the lake, to low/mid 70s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

L/V winds overnight before sea-breeze circulations pick up after
sunrise. SHRA/TSRA will develop along boundaries and could impact
terminals bringing sub-MVFR cigs/vis as well as erratic wind
shifts, especially during the afternoon hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Mainly benign conditions over the weekend with light to moderate
southwesterly to southerly flow. There will be scattered showers and
thunderstorms this weekend, mainly over the Atlantic waters, which

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Miami            93  77  91  75 /  40  50  80  50
West Kendall     96  75  93  73 /  40  40  80  50
Opa-Locka        95  77  92  75 /  50  50  80  50
Homestead        94  77  92  74 /  40  50  80  60
Fort Lauderdale  92  77  90  75 /  60  50  80  60
N Ft Lauderdale  93  76  91  74 /  60  50  80  50
Pembroke Pines   96  77  93  75 /  50  50  80  50
West Palm Beach  92  74  90  73 /  80  50  80  50
Boca Raton       93  75  91  74 /  70  40  80  50
Naples           91  77  89  74 /  50  50  50  30
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ071>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...Hadi