Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 011055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
255 AM PST Mon Mar 1 2021

.DISCUSSION...Current satellite imagery shows some higher clouds
across portions of the coast and stretching inland into Josephine
and Douglas Counties. Below those mid-level clouds, some low
stratus clouds have developed in Douglas, Coos, and Curry County
Valleys. This is largely indicative of the influence of high
pressure while a system dips southward well off our coast. Models
have continued to trend the track farther offshore...leaving our
area precipitation-free today. The influence of high pressure
should remain in place for most of the work week. This means that
most areas should see sunshine in the afternoon with near normal
to slightly above normal temperatures, including at the coast.
Nights will be somewhat chilly, albeit also near normal for the
first few days of meteorological spring.

The next system will approach the Pacific Northwest Friday. This
will result in precipitation from the Cascades west to the Coast.
Models are starting to hint that a low pressure system could
develop on the south side of our front, and move over Del Norte,
Siskiyou, and Modoc County as it begins to tilt negatively on
Saturday. Should this occur, then it means that the heaviest
precipitation could shift southward from the Coast range in Curry
County to the Marble Mountains and Mt. Shasta area. Snow levels
remain in the 4000 to 6000 foot range, although with the southerly
flow, snow levels could drop lower around the Mt. Shasta area as
is often the case with events like these. We will need to stay
tuned to the forecast to see how models trend as some ensemble
members show the previous scenario with 1-3 inches of
precipitation in the Curry County mountains.

Another front could arrive as early as Sunday. However, models are
now shifting toward another low pressure system moving west over
the entirety of the Pacific Northwest with its lobe vortices
moving over our area. This could mean another dose of moderate to
heavy precipitation in spots, dependent on the track and
subsequently the flow pattern caused by the track of the low. This
would be a relatively slow moving system where showers could
linger for several days in the area. Stay tuned to the forecast as
details continue to emerge. For now, have gone with the National
Blend of Models for the forecast. -Schaaf


.AVIATION...For the 01/12Z TAF Cycle...Over the coastal waters and along the
coast...Areas of IFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds and fog will clear from the coast
by late Monday morning, but will remain over the coastal waters. The lower
conditions will move back onshore in some locations Monday night, clearing to
VFR again Tuesday morning.  Over the Umpqua Basin...Patchy IFR cigs/vsbys in
low clouds and fog over the valleys will clear to VFR by late Monday morning,
then VFR conditions will prevail into Monday evening. Patchy IFR cigs/vsbys
will return Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Over the remainder of the
area...VFR conditions will prevail into Tuesday morning.


.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Monday 01 Mar 2021...Winds and seas
will remain relatively light through Monday evening, although
there will be areas of fog and low clouds. A weak system will pass
through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Winds will be light,
but there will be steep northwest swell 10 to 13 feet at 14 to 15
seconds Tuesday through Tuesday night.

Conditions will improve Wednesday, but a strong front will arrive
late in the week. The timing of the front is still uncertain, but
gales and very steep seas are possible as early as Thursday and as
late as Friday evening. Seas may be as high as 22 feet.



Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST
     Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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