Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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571
FXUS66 KMFR 271116
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
316 AM PST Thu Feb 27 2020

.DISCUSSION...Morning water vapor channel satellite imagery depicts
upper ridging affecting Southern Oregon and Northern California,
while an upper low spins well offshore to the south between Hawaii
and Baja California. This pattern portends sunny skies and warm
afternoon temperatures across most of the forecast area today.
Towards the coast, low clouds will play a role in the weather this
morning and moreso tonight into Friday as a large batch of
stratus grows over the coastal waters and heads inland tomorrow.
Temperatures today will be the warmest of the week, and some
cooling is expected Friday as clouds increase across the area,
though afternoon readings Friday will still be 10 degrees above
normal away from the coast. Friday`s increasing winds across the
area will be a sign of a change in weather, with a much cooler
air mass approaching behind a cold front that should arrive Friday
night.

Not much rain is expected with this cold front Friday night, but
there`s a better chance for rain and mountain snow Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night as an upper trough moves overhead.
Total snow over the mountains is only expected to be a few inches
above 3000 feet elevation though snow levels will dip to around 2000
feet as precipitation tapers off late Saturday. There`s no doubt
Saturday will feel much different than Friday thanks to a
significantly colder air mass. 500mb temperatures are cold enough
with the trough to support thunderstorm chances over the coastal
waters and just inland over the Umpqua Basin Saturday afternoon and
evening.

A few showers will linger Sunday, and some impulses will try to make
their way over the offshore ridge and into the forecast area early
next week, but these look weak and shouldn`t deliver much in the way
of precipitation. What once looked like a potentially wet system
early next week now looks pretty meager in the water delivery
department. Any precipitation should be focused at the coast and
from the Umpqua Divide north and east to the Cascades. Clouds will
be more prevalent through the next week compared to recent abundant
sunshine. Ensembles continue to point toward some wetter systems
towards next weekend, but there is no wet signal that we`re
confident about right now. Keene

&&

.AVIATION...For the 27/06Z TAF Cycle...VFR ceilings/visibility will
continue through the TAF period. The exception will be in portions
of the Umpqua Basin and along the Coast. Low ceilings and fog will
be possible in these locations tonight.  If fog and low stratus is
able to form LIFR conditions are possible around the locations
mentioned above. Otherwise the fog and stratus should clear up
pretty quickly after sunrise and VFR conditions will prevail shortly
after sunrise as the boundary layer dries out.

-Smith

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 AM PST Thursday 27 Feb 2020...
Moderate north winds and west swell will continue steep seas through
tonight with the strongest winds between Cape Blanco and Gold Beach
from 5 to 30 NM offshore. Conditions will improve briefly Friday,
then a cold front arrives Friday night. The front Friday night
doesn`t look strong, so seas will remain swell dominated through
Saturday. Strong north winds are expected early Sunday morning into
Sunday evening with seas likely at 10 to 13 feet as wind waves
become dominant but combine with northwest swell trains at 12
seconds and 16 seconds. Another brief period of improvement is
expected on Monday. But, a new thermal trough likely forms along the
coast with increasing north winds yet again. -DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Friday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



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