Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000 FXUS66 KMFR 282347 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 447 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .Update AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...
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(29/00Z TAFs)...Mainly VFR conditions prevail with widespread terrain obscurations across the region. Areas of MVFR ceilings are present, mainly associated with widespread showers passing through the area today. This will be the general trend through the afternoon and evening, but with the addition of isolated to scattered thunderstorms focused over the marine waters, along the coast and inland west of the Cascades. Winds will be breezy across the area through this afternoon, with some strong outflows/wind gusts expected with any of the stronger showers/thunderstorms. Shower activity will wind down for most areas away from the immediate coast/marine waters after midnight. There should be enough lingering VFR/MVFR stratus around tonight to preclude fog development in area valleys tonight. /BR-y
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/Issued 245 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ SHORT TERM...Through Monday morning (3/31)...A low pressure system lingering over the Pacific Ocean is continuing to bring active to northern California and southern Oregon, although the impacts form this system are decreasing. Southwesterly flow aloft is continuing to bring light to moderate rainfall to the Oregon coast, especially to areas south of Cape Blanco. Storm cells with 40-45 dBZ reflectivity will pop up occasionally around Brookings, but no lightning strikes have been sensed since this morning and reflectivity drops quickly as these cells move over land. Lighter scattered showers are continuing to stream over inland areas. While snow showers are continuing to move over the Cascades, western Siskiyou County, and the Mount Shasta area, road webcams and radar imagery are indicating light activity in these areas. So while caution is encouraged while traveling through these areas as active weather continues, there is no need for continuing Winter Weather Advisories. As of the posting of this discussion, these products have been cancelled. Gusty winds are moving over elevated terrain, especially over areas east of the Cascades. Stations across Lake County and in Weed are reporting wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. These winds are expected to continue into the afternoon but should calm quickly this evening. The low pressure system will start to move to the south towards California tonight, and through the day Friday. While this will bring an end to widespread activity, scattered showers will still be possible as moisture wraps around the system and returns to the area from the south and the east. This will bring slight precipitation chances (25-50%) to Siskiyou, Modoc, Lake, and Klamath counties during the day. Showers will have to get past the Cascades to reach west side areas. The pattern will start to transition from active to stable on Saturday. Northerly flow aloft will help to keep temperatures close to seasonal norms. Gusty winds may develop over elevated terrain Saturday afternoon and persist into the evening, but these winds are not expected to reach advisory thresholds right now. The week will begin with atmospheric stability and above average temperatures across the area. -TAD Extended Discussion...(Monday through Thursday)...It will remain dry through Tuesday with milder temperatures in the afternoon for most interior locations. The ridge axis shifts east as an upper trough approaches from the west, but the front will remain offshore through Tuesday evening. The front will reach the coast late Tuesday night and could bring a slight chance of rain to the coastal counties and Douglas County by early Wednesday morning, with dry weather likely elsewhere. The upper trough will push closer towards the area Wednesday and the operational models show what could be convective feedback with QPF fields increasing in northern Cal, Cascades and eastside. The individual ensemble members show a variety of solutions, with the majority of them keeping most of the precipitation along and west of the Cascades Wednesday afternoon and evening. Beyond next Wednesday, the evidence is still pointing towards troughiness over the Pac NW which could carry over into the start of next weekend, leading to more cool and unsettled weather. -Petrucelli MARINE...Updated 100 PM Thursday, March 28, 2024..Moderate to strong southwest winds will persist into the evening, with brief periods of gales possible north of Cape Blanco. A high and steep swell group is moving through the waters this afternoon, peaking around 15 to 18 ft today. Conditions will slowly improve late tonight as winds diminish, and while seas will gradually subside tonight, steep seas are expected for much of the day Friday. A pattern change is expected Friday with winds becoming northerly Friday evening and increasing on Saturday. These northerly winds are likely to stick around into the first half of next week, resulting in periods of steep to very steep wind driven seas, especially south of Cape Blanco. /BR-y
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&& .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370. && $$

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