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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 211439
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1039 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will lift NE off the NC coast bringing
widespread rain today into tonight. High pressure briefly
builds into the area early next week followed by a cold front
with limited moisture pushing across the area Wednesday. High
pressure builds back into the area for the latter half of the
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1015 AM Sunday...

9am surface analysis reveals a ~1011mb surface low about 60
miles SE of Cape Lookout. A cold front trails back to the west
to the SC coast. Aloft, there appears to be a weak 925-850mb low
over the Crystal Coast, with an area of low-level frontogenesis
extending east across the southern OBX.

The heaviest rain, and even a few thunderstorms, has been
confined along and south of the zone of low-level frontogenesis.
To the north, rain has been more stratiform in nature. Over the
next few hours, the low is forecast to deepen as it continues
to lift ENE along the coast. The heaviest rainfall rates are
expected to remain confined to the coast from Onslow County east
through Hatteras Island. Based on radar trends, there should be
a relative lull in precip in the wake of the low, then a more
solid area of stratiform rain is expected to develop as a weak
upper level low moves in from the SW, interacting with the
above-mentioned frontal boundary.

With this forecast update, I increased the chance of precip
along the coast to better reflect radar trends there, and I also
added in a mention of thunderstorms there for a few hours.
Winds have been steadily increasing as the low deepens, and I
increased winds some as well.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 415 AM Sunday...Widespread rain will continue into this
evening but should end in most locations from west to east by
midnight as the low moves well offshore. Exception will be along
the immediate coast where patchy light rain could linger
through early Mon morning. Low temps are forecast to drop into
the low to mid 40s inland and upper 40s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 415 AM Sunday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term with
high pressure dominating early in the week, mostly dry front moving
through mid-week, and another high pressure setting up to our and
north through the weekend.

Monday...The upper trough will push across the region Monday but
guidance continues to trend southward and weaker with dry conditions
prevailing. Sfc low strengthens offshore after encountering the gulf
stream, and moisture and enough lift could extend as far west as the
Crystal Coast/SOBX and southern waters for some showers. Have
Chc/Schc showers in place for the morning hours Monday to cover this
potential. Otherwise, below normal temps continue on Monday despite
clearing skies with highs in the low to mid 60s due to northerly
flow.

Tuesday...Clear skies and calm winds bring bring lows near 40 inland
Tuesday morning. Along the coast lows are a bit higher, in the low
50s, as the gradient is pinched a bit more there with the high
building from the west and and the low offshore to the east. This
might be enough to prevent true decoupling due to radiational
cooling. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday, with highs near
60 inland, mid 60s for beaches.

Wednesday...Low sweeps to our north, pinching the pressure gradient
with the high to our south. This looks to prevent decoupling
Wednesday morning, leaving lows in the mid to upper 40s to start the
day inland. Along the coast lows will be in the mid 50s. High
pressure moves offshore through the day Wednesday with the help of a
weak cold front associated with the sweeping low. This will cause
winds to veer from southerly to northerly through the day.
Atmospheric column looks to be fairly dry during the weak cold front
passage, preventing the inclusion of mentionable PoPs for Wednesday.
Wednesday looks to be the gustiest day in the long term, with ample
mixing allowing gusts of 20kts inland. Fortunately RHs will be well
above 35%, so fire weather should not be a concern. Highs look to be
in the mid to upper 70s inland, near 70 for the coast, aided by the
south veering west flow through the day.

Thursday to Saturday...High pressure to our north keeps us dry,
with high temps incrementally increasing each day. Into the
weekend, omega block setup initiates at upper levels. This will
allow the high pressure to linger through the remainder of the
long term. Low moving through the eastern US in the weekend will
encounter this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains on
if it will be pushed north around the high, or if the high will
give way. If the low moves north, we will have less chances of
precip in the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high
offshore, we will see increased chances of precip. Currently
have Schc PoPs for extreme western and northern portions of the
CWA Saturday PM to cover this.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 655 AM Sunday...Sub VFR conditions are expected through
most of the TAF period as widespread rain develops by late this
morning and continues into this evening before ending by
midnight. Conditions will be variable through late morning but
then ceilings are forecast to become IFR by noon and continue
well into tonight. Ceilings should lift to MVFR after 9Z Mon as
drier air tries to filter into the region behind the departing
low. Visibilities will be mostly MVFR in the steadier
precipitation this afternoon into early evening, occasionally
dropping to IFR in heavier rain. Can`t rule out some patchy fog
late tonight but low level mixing should preclude widespread
dense fog. Northerly winds will gust to 20 kt this afternoon
into early evening.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...Improving conditions will ensue on Monday
with pred VFR through Thursday. Decoupling Monday night/Tuesday
morning inland could bring a fog threat, but too much
uncertainty exists for anything other a brief mention in this
AFD. Thursday could bring some lower cloud cover as low level
moisture increases a tad, but again, too much uncertainty on
cloud base height and coverage at this point.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 1015 AM Sunday...

Low pressure is located about 60 miles SE of Cape Lookout, and
continues to lift ENE through the central/southern coastal
waters. The pressure gradient north of the low has tightened
quicker than forecast, and winds have responded faster. The SCAs
are all scheduled to start at the top of the hour, and given
recent trends in obs, this will work out nicely. With this
update, I bumped winds up a bit, especially for the northern
waters/rivers/sounds. This increases the risk of a few hours of
gales, but I still expect it to be short-lived, and will
continue with a strongly worded SCA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...No changes to previous thinking. SCA`s
are now in effect for all of the waters as developing low
pressure tracks northeast just off of the coast today into
tonight. This will result in strong northerly flow developing
today and continuing into tonight. Winds this morning are
currently N to NE 5-15 kt and will increase to 15-25 kt by early
afternoon. Northerly flow will continue 15-25 kt tonight. 2-3
ft seas this morning will build to 5-7 ft this afternoon and 6-9
ft tonight.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...As the coastal low strengthens offshore,
seas will be slow to drop below 6 ft for western portions of marine
zones, finally doing so on Tuesday. Seas remain 3-5 feet for
much of the coastal marine zones in the remainder of the long
term. Further offshore in western portions of the marine zones,
there will be multiple rounds of waves at 6-7 feet through the
long term. Winds will be below SCA criteria through the long
term.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
     137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RM/RJ
AVIATION...JME/RJ
MARINE...RM/JME/RJ