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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 191722
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
122 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Backdoor cold front will lift back north across the region
through tonight with a risk of showers and a few thunderstorms.
The front will push back through the area Saturday and stall
offshore. An area of low pressure will lift NE along the front
Sunday into Monday bringing unsettled weather across the
region. High pressure briefly builds into the area Tuesday
followed by a cold front with limited moisture pushing across
the area Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area for
the latter half of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 120 PM Fri... No significant changes to the forecast on
this update as low clouds have finally scattered out across our
southwestern zones but remain entrenched across the NOBX where
NE`rly flow continues to keep moisture pinned underneath a
frontal inversion. Latest 12z guidance does still show a threat
for thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and into early
tonight especially across areas where destabilization can
maximize, though any low end severe threat appears to be
lessening as low level clouds have put a delay on the onset of
instability across our western zones.

Prev Disc...The upper level ridge will break down this morning
as a subtle shortwave trough traverses the mid-Atlantic.
Another, weaker lobe of energy behind this feature, combined
with efficient heating and gradual low-level moisture return as
flow turns southeasterly, will set the stage for probable
convective development across central NC racing eastward. The
downstream environment will be marginally conducive for a few
strong thunderstorms given deep layer shear of 35-40 kt and mean
SBCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg. However, this unstable airmass will
only extend as far east as Highway 17 thanks to a combination of
sea/sound breezes and the slow retreat of the backdoor cold
front. Additionally, convection will likely be arriving close to
sunset when instability will be waning. If sufficient
instability remains in place, a few strong storms capable of
gusty winds and small hail are possible primarily across the far
inner coastal plain. Highest risk will be early evening, from
6pm onward.

Impressive temperature gradient today, with highs likely in the
low 80s across the southwestern counties while over the northern
Outer Banks temperatures will struggle to get above 60.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 440 AM Fri...Storm risk will quickly wane into the
evening hours as instability collapses, although a shower risk
will persist through the overnight hours as convective complexes
ongoing across NC and VA encroach on the area. Another band of
broken showers are possible by early Saturday morning as the
main cold front begins to cross the state. More mild
temperatures likely as the frontal boundary continues to lift
northward, with lows in the low 60s inland and mid 50s across
NOBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 445 AM Friday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the
Eastern CONUS through the long term bring a progressive pattern
with several frontal passages and an area of low pressure
lifting off the coast early next week.

Saturday and Saturday night...A cold front will drop into the
area Saturday and stall just off the coast Saturday night.
High-res guidance is a bit stronger with the front pushing
through mid-morning through early afternoon. Could see a few
showers throughout the day but meager instability with a post
frontal inversion developing should limit thunderstorm activity.
Highs will be in the low to mid 70s across northern sections and
mid to upper 70s south with mid 60s to around 70s across the
OBX.

Sunday through Monday...Shortwave energy moving through the
flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area Sunday
and Sunday night with favorable jet dynamics over the area.
Sfc low pressure will develop along the offshore front and pass
off the OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther
offshore on Monday. There remains some timing differences with
the low but expect widespread rain to develop across the area
Sunday and continue into Sunday night. Rainfall amounts expected
around a half to one inch with highest amounts occuring along
the coast. NE winds, clouds and rain will keep cooler temps
across the area with highs expected in the low to mid 60s.

Most of the rain will push offshore Sunday night but an upper
trough will push across the Southeast which may trigger
additional showers across the area on Monday, however guidance
has been trending farther south and weaker with the trough which
may keep us on the drier side. Below normal temps continue on
Monday with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds into the area
Tuesday but will quickly move offshore by Wednesday with
additional shortwave energy and sfc cold front sliding across
the area bringing the chance for a few showers, though moisture
appears to be limited with this system. High pressure builds
back into the area on Thursday with dry conditions prevailing.
A warming trend will develop Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in
the low to mid 70s, and a few upper 70s possible Wednesday.
Temps cool back to the low to mid 70s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Sat/...
As of 120 PM Fri...IFR ceilings have just about mixed out of
everywhere across ENC outside of the NOBX where low level
moisture remains trapped underneath a frontal inversion and low
stratus around 600-800 ft persist. This should eventually mix
out within the next few hours out ahead of incoming shower and
thunderstorm activity, though there is a low end chance IFR
ceilings stick around all day here. Elsewhere a mix of VFR and
MVFR conditions prevails this afternoon and this is forecast to
continue over the next few hours out ahead of incoming shower
and thunderstorm activity later this afternoon. The trend has
been downward on the overall severe threat across our terminals
this afternoon but latest guidance still suggests shower and
thunderstorm activity begin to intrude from the west starting
around the 20Z-02Z PM timeframe with locally lower vis and
ceilings within any thunderstorm or shower that does develop.
Within thunderstorms isolated wind gusts up around 30-40 kts
can`t be ruled out. Otherwise as a front approaches any leftover
VFR conditions will deteriorate this evening starting from west
to east with MVFR ceilings forecast across the terminals
between 0-4Z tonight and then IFR ceilings after about 04Z.
Ceilings then begin to improve late Sat morning as the area
becomes wedged between the front that moves through tonight and
a second front coming in from the north late Sat. Light winds
persist across the region through the period.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 530 AM Friday...Pred VFR expected through Saturday
although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub-
VFR in isolated showers as mid level shortwaves and attendant
cold front moves into the area. Low pressure passes along the
offshore front Sunday through Sunday night bringing the best
chance of widespread rain and sub-VFR conditions across rtes.
Improving conditions are expected on Monday with pred VFR
expected Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 450 AM Sat...Backdoor cold front is now fully across area
waters. Northeasterly winds behind the boundary are
outperforming guidance, reaching 15-20 kt with a few infrequent
gusts near 25 kt. Seas across area waters sit at 3-5 feet,
highest across the waters north of Cape Hatteras. Forecast calls
for the backdoor front to gradually lift back north with winds
veering southeasterly and then southerly tonight, falling below
15 kt after sunrise this morning. Seas will remain elevated
across Raleigh Bay and the waters north of Cape Hatteras, and a
few spotty waves of 6 feet are possible across the far outer
waters. The probability is too low to warrant SCA this morning.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 545 AM Friday...A cold front will push south across the
waters on Saturday with a northerly surge around 15-20 kt
developing. Some high res guidance showing winds as strong as 25
kt which may warrant a SCA over parts of the waters, although
the post- frontal surge is expected to be short-lived. The front
will stall off the coast Saturday night with winds diminishing
to around 15 kt or less but low pressure will develop along the
front Sunday and pass off the OBX Sunday night into Monday
bringing a period NE winds around 15-25 kt, strongest Sunday
night into Monday morning. High pressure builds across the Mid-
Atlantic on Tuesday with NE winds around 10-20 kt continuing
across the waters. Seas expected to be around 3-5 ft Saturday
into Sunday morning, then will build to 4-7 ft across the
northern and southern waters and 6-9 ft across the central
waters Sunday night and Monday. Seas will gradually subside
Monday night and Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RCF
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/MS