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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 240001
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
801 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure centered to the south will push further offshore
tonight with a frontal passage expected on Wednesday. High
pressure builds back into the area from the north on Thursday
and eventually slides offshore this weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 745 PM Tuesday...

Early this evening, a ~1023mb SFC high was located SE of
Charleston, SC, with southerly return flow ongoing across the
Carolinas. Off to the NW, a cold front was moving east through
southern Indiana. Locally, the seabreeze has penetrated well
inland, with a brief period of gusty south winds noted on area
obs.

For the evening update, I increased winds along the advancing
seabreeze to better reflect what is being seen on obs. Otherwise,
the forecast is tracking nicely, and no other significant changes
were needed.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...As we get into tonight high pressure will
gradually push offshore with a cold front gradually approaching
from the north and west. This will keep a slightly pinched
gradient across the CWA tonight allowing winds to remain
elevated at about 5-10 mph coming from the S-SW. While skies
will continue to remain clear tonight, this elevated S`rly wind
field will keep temps mild as compared to last night with lows
getting down into the low to mid 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 330 PM Tue...As we get into Wednesday a cold front will
continue to approach ENC from the north and west eventually
beginning to track across the area Wed afternoon and evening.
This will do a few things, it will increase cloud cover as mid
and upper level moisture begin to stream in from the south and
west out ahead of the incoming front, as well as bring a chance
for some light shower activity across ENC from about 2PM on
into this evening. Latest Hi-Res guidance has come in rather
robust with precip chances, and with the HREF probabilities of
seeing at least 0.01 inches of precip around 40-70%, have
increased precip chances slightly closer to 20-25% Wed afternoon
though given the latest trends PoPs may need to increase
further on future updates. Even with this front approaching and
beginning to move through the area during peak heating both
ensemble and deterministic probs for thunder are less than 10%
so have kept thunder out of the forecast on Wed. Finally the
only other impact this front will bring Will be to disrupt the
wind field around the frontal passage with 10-15 mph SW`rly
winds briefly becoming W-NW`rly at 5-10 mph directly behind the
front. Temps on Wed get into the low to mid 70s everywhere but
the NOBX where mid to upper 60s are currently forecast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 400 AM Tuesday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term
with high pressure dominating.

Wednesday night...Dry cold front will move through Wednesday
night from NW to SE. As the front moves through Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, northerly wind gusts will be increasing,
but should remain below 30 kts.

Thursday to Monday...With the cold front now offshore, gusty
conditions will prevail through the afternoon, particularly for
OBX where gusts of 30mph are possible. High pressure lingers to
our north Thursday, and will remain near the eastern seaboard
through the end of the work week, aided by omega blocking aloft.
Remainder of the long term remains uneventful due to the high. Low
moving through the eastern US in the weekend will encounter
this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains on if it will
be pushed north around the high, or if the high will give way.
If the low moves north, we will have less chances of precip in
the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high offshore, we
will see increased chances of precip. No mentionable PoPs with
this update for Saturday as high looks to shelter us from any
incoming precip. High will shift to our south in the weekend,
and easterly flow will gradually veer to become southwesterly at
the start of next week. After Wednesday`s cold front, high
temps gradually increase every day, above 80 inland Sunday
onwards.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /Through 00z Thursday/...
As of 745 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

1) VFR conditions expected (>80% chance) through Wednesday

2) Gusty SW winds (20-30kt) develop during the day Wednesday

3) A cold front moves through Wednesday afternoon w/ isolated
SHRA

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure continues to move further away from the Southeast
US coast this evening, with a modest S/SW flow ongoing across
the Carolinas. Within that flow, the seabreeze is just now
reaching ISO/PGV, and will lead to a brief period of 20-25kt
gusts (as has been observed to the south). After that, the
background SW flow will takeover, and continue into Wednesday.
With daytime heating and mixing, those SW winds will become
gusty, peaking in the 20-30kt range. During the afternoon hours,
a weak cold front will slide SE through the area with a period
of low-mid level CIGs and isolated SHRA. As the front encounters
better moisture and instability offshore, the risk of TSRA may
increase, but it`s expected that this will occur after passing
through the TAF sites, so I left out any TS mention for now.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Saturday with high pressure dominating the long term. Some
isolated showers Wednesday evening will be elevated in nature,
with cloud bases around 5kft.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 340 PM Tues...No significant changes to the marine
forecast as we are currently in between periods of SCA`s with
only the central waters currently seeing SCA conditions as waves
have remained around 5 to 6 ft across these waters with 3-5 ft
seas elsewhere along the coast and light and variable winds
across our waters this afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient
is forecast to overspread ENC tonight as high pressure ridging
pushes offshore and a cold front begins to approach from the
north and west allowing winds to become SW`rly and increase to
10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts across all waters outside of
the inland rivers. Winds slowly begin to decrease from west to
east Wed evening with the approach of the front with winds
veering to a W`rly direction across our waters. Seas increase
across all coastal waters to 4-6 ft to 5-7 ft tonight and remain
elevated into Wed evening before lowering.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday... As a dry cold front moves southeastward
Wednesday night, northerly winds will pick up behind it,
gusting near 25 kts for all waters except for the Pamlico and
Neuse Rivers. Stronger gusts behind the cold front Wednesday
night into Thursday will be a quick hitter, and at this point it
is unsure if the gusts will be handled with a SCA or a MWS.
Remainder of the long term looks to be quiet with seas settling
to 3-5 feet Thursday-Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ