Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 221035 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 635 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build over the region through the weekend. A slow moving low pressure system will affect the area Monday through Wednesday. A cold front is expected to push through the area late next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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As of 630 AM Sun...Latest sfc analysis shows 1030mb high pressure extending from the Great Lakes region into the Mid- Atlantic and Eastern NC. Satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming into the region from the west, ahead of the upper low moving through the Mid-West and strengthening sfc low in the Gulf states. Expect more cloud cover today, with mainly high clouds though could see some higher based cu develop with increasing onshore flow. Low level thickness values, partly cloudy skies, and onshore flow support highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s along the Outer Banks, and mid 60s to low 70s inland.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 2 AM Sun...High pressure will slide off the coast tonight, as surface and upper low approach from the west. Moisture increases across the Carolinas, though expect any precip chances to hold off until after daybreak. Not as cool overnight with increasing clouds and easterly flow. Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 AM Sun... Surface high pressure will be off the Mid- Atlantic, influencing the weather across North carolina, while a low pressure system lifts towards the Carolinas from the Gulf States through midweek. A though pattern will continue through the weekend leading to additional showers. Monday through Tuesday night...Unsettled conditions continues for this period as a significant upper low tracks across the Southern Plains/MS Valley through mid-week. High pressure will continue to influence the weather Monday, delaying most of the rain until Monday afternoon as the upper level low and sfc low lifts towards the Carolinas Monday night and Tuesday. Meanwhile the upper level low will weaken to an open wave and become slightly negative tilted as it becomes absorbed with another significant shortwave trough dropping down from the Northern Plains. This system will have the potential for widespread rain with amounts of 1-3 inches as the models continue to show significant 850mb moisture transport from the Atlantic towards the area Monday night and Tuesday. This can result in minor flooding in low lying areas. The models are now consistent with with track of the low moving farther inland, this will result in the potential for severe weather as low level winds will be backing, negative-tilted trough aloft, and modest instability now present; will continue to monitor. Overall, expect moderate to heavy rain, gusty winds and possible severe weather on Tuesday. Expect highs in the mid to upper 60s inland and low/mid 60s along the beaches. Wednesday through the weekend...Rain will become more scattered and taper off as the sfc low lifts NE and drier air filters in. Most places will have a break from rain Wednesday night until the other aforementioned shortwave trough and it`s associated weak cold front approaches the area with rain redeveloping again Thursday. Then another cold front will approach the area Friday and push through Saturday with more rain showers. Expect highs in the 70s inland and 60s along the Outer Banks during the forecast period. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Short Term /through Sunday/... As of 630 AM Sun...Pred VFR expected through the period. Scattered to broken high clouds today, and could also see some high based cu develop this afternoon with onshore flow. Clouds continue to increase and lower tonight, and could see scattered MVFR ceilings develop early Monday morning. E/ESE wind gusts up to 15kt this afternoon. Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... As of 300 AM Sub...VFR conditions will continue Monday as high pressure influences the weather, but low level clouds will increase as a low pressure system tracks towards the Carolinas producing widespread rain Monday night and Tuesday resulting in MVFR conditions with possible IFR. Conditions will slowly improve back to VFR Wednesday, but the threat of showers will continue each day resulting in sub-VFR conditions.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /through tonight/... As of 630 AM Sun...Latest obs show NE to SE winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. High pressure will continue to extend over the waters today, moving offshore tonight ahead of the approaching low pressure system to the west. ENE winds 10-15 kt today with seas 2-3 ft. Easterly winds increase to 10-20 kt tonight with seas building to 2-4 ft. Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... As of 630 AM Sun...Gale Watch has been issued for the southern waters beginning Monday night. Wind gradient will tighten Monday as a low pressure system approaches the region from the Gulf States, expect E winds 15-25 knots, then increasing to 20-30 knots Tuesday with gale force gusts. As the low lifts NE, winds will become SW 10-15 knots Wednesday. A weak cold front is expected to push through Thursday, resulting in winds becoming NW 5-15 knots. Seas will build 5-7 ft throughout Monday, and continue to build as the sfc low approaches the area, expect seas to reach as high 10-15 ft Tuesday. Seas will gradually start to subside Tuesday night with seas becoming 5-8 ft Wednesday and then around 5 ft Thursday.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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As of 635 am Sun...A low pressure system will impact the region Monday night through Wednesday. Strong SE winds will develop, resulting in many coastal impacts across Eastern NC. Minor coastal flooding will be possible Monday night into Tuesday night, for areas adjacent to the Pamlico Sound and rivers, as strong southeast winds develop. Minor coastal flooding, beach erosion, and overwash will be possible Monday night through Tuesday night for areas along the immediate coast. Rough surf, dangerous shore break, and an elevated rip current risk are expected along the beaches.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD/SGK NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...CQD/BM MARINE...CQD/BM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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