Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000 FXUS63 KMKX 250230 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 930 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow with some minor accumulations through the evening - Temperatures warm to above normal Monday. - Higher rainfall chances Monday into Tuesday with high potential for 24hr rainfall to exceed half an inch and a medium to high (50-70%) chances for some locations to exceed an inch of rainfall. - Also cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder and some small hail Late Tuesday morning/afternoon. && .UPDATE...
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Issued 930 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Some snow accumulations continue across the northern parts of the CWA but over the next few hours expect much of the area to be dry with just the far northwest parts of the area seeing some snow. Otherwise temperatures will remain steady tonight but will steadily rise tomorrow morning as the warm front lifts north through the region. Overall a fairly wet day is expected Monday. Kuroski
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&& .SHORT TERM... Issued 357 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Tonight through Tuesday: The second round of precip is spreading across the region this afternoon. With drier dewpoints, temps are wet bulbing and resulting in more snow despite temps in the upper 30s to near 40 in far southeastern WI. However, most of this activity will be light and only result in a dusting for areas south of HWY-151, but better potential for areas north to see additional accumulations up to around an inch. Otherwise, will see the snow activity linger into the start of the evening before lifting northward as the low-level WAA lift northward. There will be a brief window of drier conditions this evening before the next round of precip begins to spread in. Given the warmer temps and increased moisture, mainly expecting rain with the early morning activity. Temps are looking to gradually warm into the upper 40s and low 50s through the day Monday. Most models show a north to south line of rain gradually spreading eastward across the area. Some models linger this line along and west of I-39 through much of Monday morning before shifting east in the afternoon/evening. Overall, most of the area will see some rainfall as the low pressure lifts across the Mississippi River Valley and into IA up through central WI later Monday into Tuesday. Ensembles all prog a high potential (>80%) for southern WI to see at least a half an inch of rain Monday through Tuesday while there is even a pocket of higher (60-80%) potential for an area along southern WI to see rainfall exceed 1 inch. Then our attention shifts to Tuesday. While there will be some linger shower activity, there is a window late Tuesday morning into the early afternoon for instability to develop (MUCAPE 250-500J/kg) ahead of the cold front. While the more favorable upper level dynamics shift east along with the better deep layer shear, most models prog the main mid-level shortwave trough to align with this instability axis across southeastern WI. Thus cannot rule out a potential to see some scattered thunderstorms as the rain moves out. Although the better thunderstorm potential remains to our southeast in northern IL/IN and chances across southern WI are low (<20%), would not be out of the realm of possibilities to see a strong storm or two with some small hail and gusty winds try to develop as this system pushes east, especially if the low slows down. Otherwise Tuesday will be cooler and windy with the cold front passing through by the later afternoon. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 357 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Tuesday night through Sunday: West northwesterly winds will bring in cooler and dry conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday as low pressure departs and high pressure sinks southeastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Dry conditions continue through Thursday as high pressure remains dominant across the region. As high pressure builds into the southeastern US late Thursday into Friday, generally southerly return flow develops across the central US, leading to warmer than normal temperatures and a weak baroclinic zone across southern Wisconsin Friday into the weekend. Gulf moisture associated with this southwesterly flow may result in showery activity as early as Friday, although the shortwave that would produce the main lifting mechanism varies in timing from model to model and run to run. Therefore kept low (15-30 percent) chances for precipitation through the weekend as several shortwaves propagate through the region. Modeling does indicate a more substantial low pressure system developing in the central Great Plains Sunday, which may lead to a more organized precipitation threat early next week. MH && .AVIATION...
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Issued 930 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 With the exception of some lower VSBYS toward central WI with the snow over the next few hours we should expect VFR condition in large part though expect mostly overcast skies from upper level CIGS. This will carry through tonight but as the warm front lifts north Monday morning and rain starts moving in CIGS are expected to fall to MVFR and likely even IFR with the western parts of the area by the late morning/afternoon. VSBYS will also likely reach MVFR at times with the rainfall. Otherwise expect breezy southeast winds throughout the TAF period with some LLWS overnight. LLWS will largely be from the southeast at around 2kft from 45 to 50 kts now through the early morning hours. Kuroski
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&& .MARINE... Issued 357 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 High pressure continues to track east across Quebec while a low pressure develops over the Central Plains. Expect southeasterly winds to continue to increase through the evening as the low gradually slides into the Midwest on Monday. Will continue to see stronger southeasterly winds through the day Monday across Lake Michigan and small craft conditions will persist. While we cannot rule out a few brief gusts approaching gale force over Lake Michigan at times on Monday, the better potential to see stronger winds to gales will be when the low tracks across IA and into WI Tuesday. Thus a Gale Watch has been issued for Tuesday. This will drag a cold front across the region and turn southeasterly winds back to the west Tuesday evening. May also see a few thunderstorms across souther portions of the lake ahead of the cold front. Otherwise, stronger winds look to linger through the evening but are progged to weaken a bit heading into Wednesday as the low pressure lifts into the Hudson Bay region and high pressure builds across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Can expect breezy winds through the second half of the week as the high pressure works its way into the Ohio River Valley. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 AM Tuesday. Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673- LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876- LMZ878...3 AM Tuesday to 4 PM Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee

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