Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KMKX 250230
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
930 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow with some minor accumulations through the evening
- Temperatures warm to above normal Monday.
- Higher rainfall chances Monday into Tuesday with high
potential for 24hr rainfall to exceed half an inch and a
medium to high (50-70%) chances for some locations to exceed
an inch of rainfall.
- Also cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder and some small
hail Late Tuesday morning/afternoon.
&&
.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued 930 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Some snow accumulations continue across the northern parts of
the CWA but over the next few hours expect much of the area to
be dry with just the far northwest parts of the area seeing some
snow. Otherwise temperatures will remain steady tonight but will
steadily rise tomorrow morning as the warm front lifts north
through the region. Overall a fairly wet day is expected Monday.
Kuroski-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 357 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Tonight through Tuesday:
The second round of precip is spreading across the region this
afternoon. With drier dewpoints, temps are wet bulbing and resulting
in more snow despite temps in the upper 30s to near 40 in far
southeastern WI. However, most of this activity will be light and
only result in a dusting for areas south of HWY-151, but better
potential for areas north to see additional accumulations up to
around an inch. Otherwise, will see the snow activity linger into
the start of the evening before lifting northward as the low-level
WAA lift northward.
There will be a brief window of drier conditions this evening before
the next round of precip begins to spread in. Given the warmer temps
and increased moisture, mainly expecting rain with the early morning
activity. Temps are looking to gradually warm into the upper 40s and
low 50s through the day Monday. Most models show a north to south
line of rain gradually spreading eastward across the area. Some
models linger this line along and west of I-39 through much of
Monday morning before shifting east in the afternoon/evening.
Overall, most of the area will see some rainfall as the low pressure
lifts across the Mississippi River Valley and into IA up through
central WI later Monday into Tuesday. Ensembles all prog a high
potential (>80%) for southern WI to see at least a half an inch of
rain Monday through Tuesday while there is even a pocket of higher
(60-80%) potential for an area along southern WI to see rainfall
exceed 1 inch.
Then our attention shifts to Tuesday. While there will be some
linger shower activity, there is a window late Tuesday morning into
the early afternoon for instability to develop (MUCAPE 250-500J/kg)
ahead of the cold front. While the more favorable upper level
dynamics shift east along with the better deep layer shear, most
models prog the main mid-level shortwave trough to align with this
instability axis across southeastern WI. Thus cannot rule out a
potential to see some scattered thunderstorms as the rain moves out.
Although the better thunderstorm potential remains to our southeast
in northern IL/IN and chances across southern WI are low (<20%),
would not be out of the realm of possibilities to see a strong storm
or two with some small hail and gusty winds try to develop as this
system pushes east, especially if the low slows down. Otherwise
Tuesday will be cooler and windy with the cold front passing through
by the later afternoon.
Wagner
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 357 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Tuesday night through Sunday:
West northwesterly winds will bring in cooler and dry conditions
Tuesday night through Wednesday as low pressure departs and high
pressure sinks southeastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Dry conditions continue through Thursday as high pressure remains
dominant across the region.
As high pressure builds into the southeastern US late Thursday into
Friday, generally southerly return flow develops across the central
US, leading to warmer than normal temperatures and a weak baroclinic
zone across southern Wisconsin Friday into the weekend.
Gulf moisture associated with this southwesterly flow may result in
showery activity as early as Friday, although the shortwave that
would produce the main lifting mechanism varies in timing from model
to model and run to run. Therefore kept low (15-30 percent) chances
for precipitation through the weekend as several shortwaves
propagate through the region. Modeling does indicate a more
substantial low pressure system developing in the central Great
Plains Sunday, which may lead to a more organized precipitation
threat early next week.
MH
&&
.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued 930 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
With the exception of some lower VSBYS toward central WI with
the snow over the next few hours we should expect VFR condition
in large part though expect mostly overcast skies from upper
level CIGS. This will carry through tonight but as the warm
front lifts north Monday morning and rain starts moving in CIGS
are expected to fall to MVFR and likely even IFR with the
western parts of the area by the late morning/afternoon. VSBYS
will also likely reach MVFR at times with the rainfall.
Otherwise expect breezy southeast winds throughout the TAF
period with some LLWS overnight. LLWS will largely be from the
southeast at around 2kft from 45 to 50 kts now through the early
morning hours.
Kuroski-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 357 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
High pressure continues to track east across Quebec while a low
pressure develops over the Central Plains. Expect southeasterly
winds to continue to increase through the evening as the low
gradually slides into the Midwest on Monday. Will continue to see
stronger southeasterly winds through the day Monday across Lake
Michigan and small craft conditions will persist. While we cannot
rule out a few brief gusts approaching gale force over Lake Michigan
at times on Monday, the better potential to see stronger winds to
gales will be when the low tracks across IA and into WI Tuesday.
Thus a Gale Watch has been issued for Tuesday. This will drag a cold
front across the region and turn southeasterly winds back to the
west Tuesday evening. May also see a few thunderstorms across
souther portions of the lake ahead of the cold front. Otherwise,
stronger winds look to linger through the evening but are progged to
weaken a bit heading into Wednesday as the low pressure lifts into
the Hudson Bay region and high pressure builds across the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. Can expect breezy winds through the second
half of the week as the high pressure works its way into the Ohio
River Valley.
Wagner
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 AM
Tuesday.
Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...3 AM Tuesday to 4 PM Tuesday.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee