Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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000
FXUS63 KMKX 270211 AAA
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
911 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
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- Gales until late this evening over the southern half of Lake
Michigan.
- Above normal temperatures may return this weekend, along with
a more active weather pattern into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.UPDATE...
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Issued 911 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Showers have ended across the area, as the main 500 mb shortwave
trough and associated differential CVA has shifted northeast of
the area. Cold front also has shifted quickly northeast of the
area as well, with cold air advection on gusty west winds in
its wake. Expect this to linger overnight into Wednesday across
the area. Low clouds will linger overnight into early Wednesday,
before gradually scattering out as the day goes on. Lows in the
lower to middle 20s are expected tonight, with highs in the
upper 30s to around 40 for Wednesday.
Wood-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM...
Issued 355 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Tonight through Wednesday night:
Showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph at times continue into late
this afternoon, lingering into this evening across the
Lakeshore counties. As the parent low pressure system pivots
northeastward out of Wisconsin into Ontario, winds will become
westerly and gusts will diminish. As colder air filters in late
this evening into tonight, a few snow showers may develop across
central Wisconsin and the Kettle Moraine. However, little to no
accumulations are expected. Expect low temperatures in the
lower to mid-20s.
Skies will slowly clear into Wednesday as high pressure nudges
into the area, with sunshine and breezy westerly winds leading
to high temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.
Wednesday night, winds become light and westerly with clear
skies. Expect lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.
MH
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.LONG TERM...
Issued 355 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Thursday through Tuesday:
Light westerly winds will continue into Thursday, with high
pressure remaining over the region and allowing temperatures to
recover into the mid to upper 40s. Clear skies and light winds
will allow for lows in the 20s once again overnight.
A more active pattern sets into the area Friday, as low pressure
develops in the central Plains and a few shortwaves propagate
along the upper level ridge into southern Wisconsin. Phasing
between the shortwaves and a surface trough extending
northeastward into the Upper Midwest will dictate how much each
shortwave deepens and the type of precipitation possible across
southern Wisconsin. Pattern favors southwesterly flow ahead of
these systems, placing southern Wisconsin in a favorable
environment for rainfall and above normal temperatures for at
least Friday`s system. However, if the initial system deepens
enough, CAA behind it may result in a Sunday shortwave
encountering a cooler weather pattern and enhancing the
potential for snowfall mixing in with rain.
This secondary system looks to follow a similar pattern with a
Great Plains low interacting with a northern shortwave and
kicking eastward. However, a bit more southerly flow ahead of
this system is indicated, allowing for more moisture and a
deepening low as it ejects eastward. This solution is favored on
the 12Z models today, but a second solution of a weaker system
sliding farther southward is also indicated on ensembles and
previous runs. Regardless, a more active pattern is expected
this weekend into early next week.
MH
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.AVIATION...
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Issued 911 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Showers have ended across the area, and the cold front has
shifted quickly northeast of the area. Gusty west winds will
linger overnight into Wednesday across the area, with colder
temperatures moving in. Low clouds with ceilings of 1500 to 2000
feet AGL will linger overnight, before slowly rising above 2000
feet AGL Wednesday morning and gradually scattering out as the
day goes on. West winds will weaken Wednesday night, with mostly
clear skies.
Wood-- End Changed Discussion --
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.MARINE...
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Issued 911 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Gale Warning continues for the nearshore waters, as well as the
southern half of the open waters of Lake Michigan, until 10 PM
CST this evening. It may need another extension for another few
hours, as gale force gusts continue at airport sites near Lake
Michigan and at the Sheboygan Harbor. Will be a last-minute
call.
Gales should subside by midnight CST or soon after over the
south half of the lake, with gusts of 25 to 30 knots overnight
into Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed for this
period for the nearshore waters, once the Gale Warning expires.
Lighter winds are expected for later in the week, as high
pressure builds into the region.
Wood-- End Changed Discussion --
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.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-
LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 until 10 PM Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
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