Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000 FXUS63 KMKX 270211 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 911 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- Gales until late this evening over the southern half of Lake Michigan. - Above normal temperatures may return this weekend, along with a more active weather pattern into early next week.
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&& .UPDATE...
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Issued 911 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Showers have ended across the area, as the main 500 mb shortwave trough and associated differential CVA has shifted northeast of the area. Cold front also has shifted quickly northeast of the area as well, with cold air advection on gusty west winds in its wake. Expect this to linger overnight into Wednesday across the area. Low clouds will linger overnight into early Wednesday, before gradually scattering out as the day goes on. Lows in the lower to middle 20s are expected tonight, with highs in the upper 30s to around 40 for Wednesday. Wood
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&& .SHORT TERM... Issued 355 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Tonight through Wednesday night: Showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph at times continue into late this afternoon, lingering into this evening across the Lakeshore counties. As the parent low pressure system pivots northeastward out of Wisconsin into Ontario, winds will become westerly and gusts will diminish. As colder air filters in late this evening into tonight, a few snow showers may develop across central Wisconsin and the Kettle Moraine. However, little to no accumulations are expected. Expect low temperatures in the lower to mid-20s. Skies will slowly clear into Wednesday as high pressure nudges into the area, with sunshine and breezy westerly winds leading to high temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Wednesday night, winds become light and westerly with clear skies. Expect lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. MH && .LONG TERM... Issued 355 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Thursday through Tuesday: Light westerly winds will continue into Thursday, with high pressure remaining over the region and allowing temperatures to recover into the mid to upper 40s. Clear skies and light winds will allow for lows in the 20s once again overnight. A more active pattern sets into the area Friday, as low pressure develops in the central Plains and a few shortwaves propagate along the upper level ridge into southern Wisconsin. Phasing between the shortwaves and a surface trough extending northeastward into the Upper Midwest will dictate how much each shortwave deepens and the type of precipitation possible across southern Wisconsin. Pattern favors southwesterly flow ahead of these systems, placing southern Wisconsin in a favorable environment for rainfall and above normal temperatures for at least Friday`s system. However, if the initial system deepens enough, CAA behind it may result in a Sunday shortwave encountering a cooler weather pattern and enhancing the potential for snowfall mixing in with rain. This secondary system looks to follow a similar pattern with a Great Plains low interacting with a northern shortwave and kicking eastward. However, a bit more southerly flow ahead of this system is indicated, allowing for more moisture and a deepening low as it ejects eastward. This solution is favored on the 12Z models today, but a second solution of a weaker system sliding farther southward is also indicated on ensembles and previous runs. Regardless, a more active pattern is expected this weekend into early next week. MH && .AVIATION...
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Issued 911 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Showers have ended across the area, and the cold front has shifted quickly northeast of the area. Gusty west winds will linger overnight into Wednesday across the area, with colder temperatures moving in. Low clouds with ceilings of 1500 to 2000 feet AGL will linger overnight, before slowly rising above 2000 feet AGL Wednesday morning and gradually scattering out as the day goes on. West winds will weaken Wednesday night, with mostly clear skies. Wood
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&& .MARINE...
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Issued 911 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Gale Warning continues for the nearshore waters, as well as the southern half of the open waters of Lake Michigan, until 10 PM CST this evening. It may need another extension for another few hours, as gale force gusts continue at airport sites near Lake Michigan and at the Sheboygan Harbor. Will be a last-minute call. Gales should subside by midnight CST or soon after over the south half of the lake, with gusts of 25 to 30 knots overnight into Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed for this period for the nearshore waters, once the Gale Warning expires. Lighter winds are expected for later in the week, as high pressure builds into the region. Wood
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&& .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669- LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878 until 10 PM Tuesday.
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