Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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332
FXUS62 KMLB 210203
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1000 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Strong Atlc Ridge extending from Bermuda to the Carolinas will
maintain a deep and brisk SE flow acrs central FL overnight. Deep
moisture remains overhead as evng RAOBs measured PWat values btwn
1.75"-2.00", while the RAP40 analysis shows H100-H70 mean RH values
btwn 70-80pct upstream. Aloft, RAP40 is picking up an inverted trof
over the NE GOMex/Big Bend area, placing central FL on its ascending
flank. Not surprisingly, H85-H30 omega/H30-H20 divergence fields are
strongly positive over the south half of the peninsula, working
their way north. Deep lyr vort fields are also displaying
instability with a noteworthy axis extending from the FL Straits to
the waters north of the Bahamas.

GFS MOS continues to indicate likely PoPs over the Space/Treasure
Coast and the Lake-O region overnight, decreasing to chc PoPs along
and north of the I-4 corridor. Solution looks reasonable given the
strength/depth of the onshore flow, as well as the available
moisture and instability overhead and upstream. No sig changes to the
aftn fcst package.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 22/00Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 21/04Z...E/SE 7-11KTS bcmg SE 3-6KTS. Btwn 21/12Z-
21/15Z...bcmg E/SE 7-11KTS. Btwn 21/15Z-21/18Z...coastal sites E/SE
8-12KTS with ocnl sfc G18-22KTS. Aft 21/18Z...bcmg S/SE 8-12KTS with
ocnl sfc G18-22KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 21/06Z...cigs btwn FL100-120 chc MVFR shras.
Btwn 21/06Z-21/12Z...cigs btwn FL040-060...E of KTTS-KOBE nmrs MVFR
shras/chc IFR tsras...W of KTTS-KOBE chc MVFR shras. Btwn 21/12Z-
21/18Z...cigs btwn FL0035-050...coastal sites nmrs MVFR shras/chc
IFR tsras...interior sites chc MVFR shras. Aft 21/18Z...MVFR cigs
btwn FL020-030...interior sites nmrs MVFR shras/chc IFR tsras...
coastal sites chc MVFR shras.

&&

.MARINE...
Atlc ridge axis will generate a moderate SE breeze acrs the lcl Atlc
overnight. Poor conditions for small craft overnight as these winds
push a 3-4FT easterly swell into the east FL coast...combined seas 4-
5FT nearshore and 5-6FT offshore...dominant pds btwn 7-8sec north of
Sebastian Inlet, btwn 5-6sec south of the Inlet. Isold shras thru
midnight...bcmg likely from the Cape southward and sct north of the
Cape in the early hrs as a surge of moisture works its way up from
the south.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Radar/Impact WX.......Smith



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