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330
FXUS62 KMLB 301458
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1058 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 1055 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Low-level moistening is occurring this morning, as evidenced by
the 10z XMR sounding and GOES-derived PW imagery. As moisture is
advected northward through the day, expect continued growth of the
cumulus field presently over the peninsula, which will result in
isolated showers and a couple of thunderstorms by late afternoon
and early evening. The highest coverage of rain and isolated
lightning storms continues to be expected as the east coast breeze
moves inland and encounters the Lake Okeechobee breeze, in
addition to a later collision of the west and east coast sea
breezes after 4-5 PM. Any showers or storms that develop will
have a tendency to drift back toward the east coast this evening
before dissipating. Brief heavy downpours, occasional lightning
strikes, and gusty winds are possible in the most organized
activity. Modeled 500mb temps are around -10C this afternoon, but
with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the threat for small hail appears
to be low.

Temperatures will continue to climb through the 70s, warming into
the upper 80s across the westernmost interior. Gusty winds are
expected closer to the coast into the afternoon.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 1055 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Mainly VFR conditions exist at the terminals with the exception of
VRB/FPR/SUA, where instances of IFR CIGs are associated with
coastal -SHRA. VCSH included for many sites this afternoon and
TEMPOs may be needed, but confidence remains low. Highest coverage
of SHRA/TSRA is possible from SFB/MCO southward along the sea
breeze collision after 21-22z. Activity will drift toward coastal
terminals (TIX/MLB southward) before dissipating around 03z-04z.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Today-Tonight (modified previous)...ISOLD-WDLY SCT shower
activity this morning, with an increase in moisture over the area.
The pgrad continues to weaken, with ESE/SE winds 10-16 kts into
this evening, diminishing further overnight 5-11 kts as high
pressure over the western Atlc weakens and pushes further seaward.
The ECSB will develop and push inland this afternoon. There will
be, again, some nocturnal convection (including ISOLD lightning
storm potential) over the local waters, esp Gulf Stream. Seas 4-5
ft will very slowly subside to 3-4 ft areawide by daybreak Wed
morning.

Wednesday-Friday...Influence of high pressure will keep boating
conditions favorable through late week. Winds will vary east to
southeast each day remaining below 15 knots while seas diminish from
3-4 ft to 2-3 ft. There is a slight chance for onshore moving
showers with the potential for lightning storms over the Gulf Stream
waters and also near to the coast with the east coast sea breeze
development.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Today...Some morning wetting rains, mainly southward and
especially along the coast. The ECSB moves inland today with a
late day/evening collision over the interior. A few lightning
storms cannot be ruled out late today and evening before activity
diminishes. As such, a localized fire start from occasional
lightning strikes cannot be ruled out.

Min aftn RH values fall to 40-45pct well into the interior and
45-60pct closer towards the coast. Variable winds over the
interior, with SERLY nearer the coast this morning. Winds
transition to ESE (up to 15 mph and gusty) behind the inland
moving sea breeze this aftn. Light winds tonight.

Wednesday-Saturday...Isolated lightning storms will be possible each
day, mainly across the interior as the east coast sea breeze moves
inland. While coverage of showers and storms will be overall low,
there is the threat for burns ignited from lightning strikes with
drying fuels. Min RH values will drop as low as 38% over the far
interior, with areas away from the immediate coast falling to 40-43%
this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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DAB  83  66  86  67 /  20  10  20  10
MCO  86  68  90  68 /  30  30  20  10
MLB  81  67  84  68 /  30  20  20  10
VRB  81  66  85  66 /  40  30  20  20
LEE  86  67  89  68 /  20  10  20  10
SFB  86  67  89  68 /  30  20  20  10
ORL  87  69  90  69 /  30  20  20  10
FPR  81  65  85  65 /  50  30  30  20
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&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Schaper
DECISION SUPPORT...Tollefsen