Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 170038
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
838 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Quick update to raise POPs some for a few more hours in areas where
convection will linger into late evening mainly along and north of a
Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne line. Locally heavy rain, gusty winds
and lightning will continue through around 11 pm from metro Orlando
northeastward. Should be able to lower POPs some later this evening,
though will still need to keep in a chance of showers overnight with
southwest low to mid level deep moisture and trough across the
northeast Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Higher convective coverage will continue from Orlando area terminals
to KDAB into late evening with LCL lower MVFR CIGs, and IFR vsbys in
heavy rain. Convective coverage will decrease past 04z though there
will still be lower shower chances overnight with SW mid level flow
and deep moisture over the area. Another round of showers/storms
expected Thu afternoon with mid level SW flow moving storms toward
east coast terminals through the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecast is in good shape across the waters and only late evening
adjustments anticipated wil be for convective trends overnight.
Previous...Local pressure gradient will remain tight enough to
support a gentle to moderate breeze over the local Atlantic...seas
building to 3-4FT nearshore and 4-5FT offshore as an easterly swell
pushes into the area. Prolonged southerly fetch will place much of
the Treasure Coast waters in the Bahama shadow...anticipate rough
short period seas around 5 sec. Widespread shras/tsras moving
offshore late aftn/early evng diminishing to chc shras/slgt chc
tsras in the Gulf Stream and slgt chc shras over the shelf waters
after midnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  84  71  83 /  70  70  50  70
MCO  68  86  70  85 /  70  70  30  70
MLB  71  84  71  81 /  70  70  50  70
VRB  70  83  71  81 /  50  70  50  70
LEE  70  85  71  87 /  50  70  30  60
SFB  68  85  70  84 /  70  70  40  70
ORL  68  85  71  85 /  70  70  30  70
FPR  71  83  72  82 /  50  70  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Volkmer/Combs



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