Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 201837
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
235 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Current-tonight...Forecast evolving about as expected. Showers
which have approached the Volusia coastline has fizzled out thus
far, with just a trace of rain in a few light sprinkles. As the
surface ridge to the north builds southward, onshore (NE to ENE)
flow will freshen, which will in turn pull increasing low level
moisture onshore the FL east coast. Rain chances gradually increase
to 20-30 percent with highest chances north/inland, and borderline
breezy (near 15 MPH) conditions for the Volusia/Brevard barrier
islands. Mins generally in the 60s with a few L70s confined to the
immediate coast.

Saturday...Moderately breezy onshore flow becomes well-established
areawide with residual frontal moisture/convergence band situated
over the central CWA. Rain chances 40-50 percent for most areas,
save for likely POPs (60) centered around Brevard County, where the
consensus of global/mesoscale model guidance focusing precip/higher
QPF amounts. Clouds will hold down maxes to M70s coastal Volusia to
~80F Kissimmee-Fort Pierce, with L80s confined to interior south.

Sunday-Monday...An elevated low level SE flow continue to increase
moisture across central Florida into Sunday as a cutoff low aloft
shifts sfc low and front eastward across the deep south and Gulf of
Mexico. Onshore moving showers should increase in coverage through
Sunday, with increasing instability potentially leading to a few
storms in the afternoon. Rain chances from 50-60 percent on Sunday
then increase up to 70-80 percent into Monday, as low pressure and
an associated front near the area. Models continue to be in fairly
good agreement indicating greatest coverage of showers and storms
into Monday afternoon ahead of this boundary. Some uncertainty still
exists in overall instability and shear with they system, but a few
stronger storms at least looks possible across the area.

Despite greater cloud cover and increasing rain chances,
temperatures should continue to warm through the period in the
veering low level flow. Highs will range from the upper 70s to low
80s on Sunday to low to mid 80s on Monday. Lows overnight will
remain mild in the 60s.

Tuesday-Friday (Previous Discussion)...Mid level low ejects NNE on
Tuesday and allow deeper moisture to pull eastward over the Atlantic
by Tuesday night. Drier air begins to move toward the area behind a
front into mid week. Will continue chance POPs into Tuesday before
deep layer dry air should end shower chances by Wed. Highs are
expected in the lower to mid 80s Tuesday and then will only drop a
degree or two Wed with a drier airmass expected allowing for more
sunshine.

Long range models are varied showing the possibility of another
shortwave trough moving toward the southeast U.S. and Florida in the
wake of the early week system late next week. At this time will keep
Thursday dry and introduce low shower chances to end next week.
Temps are expected to be near or just slightly below seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...NNE onshore flow along the Volusia Coast will allow for
MVFR CIGs near BKN020 to persist @KDAB through 03Z. High resolution
model guidance indicates NE flow will continue through at least
21/12Z, so MVFR deck may need to be extended later there. VFR conds
will persist at KLEE-KSFB-KMCO although a VFR BKN035-040 deck will
continue through tonight with VFR BKN035-040. While occasional MVFR
BKN030 may occur at those interior sites, probabilities are too low
to include in TAFs. Overnight, guidance shows MVFR CIGs developing
and affecting all interior terminals and KDAB, thus have included a
TEMPO group for BKN025 ceilings from 21/09Z-12Z. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions with gusty east winds will continue through tomorrow
morning from KTIX-KSUA. Winds will increase across the entire area
after 21/14Z, with sustained winds around 15-18 knots and gusts from
20-25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...Tonight-Saturday...Increasing onshore (NE-ENE) flow will
spread southward overnight, veering to east on Saturday. Winds up
to 20KT near shore and 20-25KT offshore will allow seas to build
up to 5-7FT near shore and 8-9FT offshore. Late morning decision
to push SCA start time to 8PM for the central legs, but left at
8AM Saturday south of SIPF1. Nothing has changed to warrant making
any further tweaks along that line.

Sunday-Wednesday...Poor to hazardous marine conditions will continue
through Sunday into early next week. Through Sunday a fresh onshore
breeze and long easterly fetch keeps will keep seas elevated up to 7
to 8 feet.

Winds Monday veer to the S-SE ahead of an approaching low and
associated front with speeds 15-20 knots and then become southwest
10-15 knots into Tue. Numerous to widespread showers and scattered
storms are expected Monday, some may be strong.  Seas will remain
elevated across the offshore waters up to 7 to 8 feet Monday and
then decreasing to 5 to 7 feet by Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...No critical RH or wind issues are expected through
the 5-day period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  75  67  76 /  30  40  40  50
MCO  67  79  67  81 /  20  50  40  50
MLB  71  78  70  80 /  30  60  40  60
VRB  70  79  70  80 /  20  50  40  60
LEE  65  79  65  81 /  20  50  30  60
SFB  66  77  65  80 /  30  50  40  50
ORL  66  78  66  80 /  30  50  40  50
FPR  70  80  69  80 /  20  50  40  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM Sunday
     for Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 4 PM Sunday for
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cristaldi
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...Weitlich
AVIATION...Rodriguez



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