Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 100248
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1045 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Despite rather warm temps aloft, strong sfc heating, boundary
collisions and dry air aloft produced strong to isolated severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening. One of the
strongest storms moved right over Orlando Intl AP producing 60
knots. The other severe storm moved off Lake Okeechobee over Port
Mayaca after sunset. Threat for storms has ended for tonight with
debris rains ending around midnight along the Treasure coast.

Fri...Similar regime remains in place for Fri as ridge remains
south of the area. Model guidance is indicating an earlier start to
convection over the western peninsula during the late morning
spreading east during the early to mid afternoon. Expect a sea
breeze to form but remain pinned near the coast similar to today.
This will focus storms near the east coast during the mid to late
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR overnight and early Fri (through 14Z). Then Scattered TSRA
should push fairly quickly across the peninsula from west to east.
Could see an earlier start to the storms over the interior terminals
(16Z-18Z) reaching the coastal terminals 18-20Z where the east coast
sea breeze will be sitting. There will be potential for strong wind
gusts 35 knots or greater.

&&

.MARINE...
Broad troffing pattern over the ern seaboard will keep the Bermuda
ridge axis in the vcnty of Lake-O and the nrn Bahamas into early
next week. Light to gentle SWrly breeze will prevail, backing
to S/SE in the early aftn/late evng hrs due to the sea breeze
circulation. Seas AOB 2FT nearshore and 2-3FT offshore on Fri,
subsiding to AOB 2FT areawide Fri night thru Mon. Primary marine
threat will be sct tsras moving offshore each aftn.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The river level on the Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to
remain nearly steady in minor flood stage late this week, then
begin to slowly decline this weekend into early next week. The
river may recede below Minor Flood Stage over the next 5 days, but
will remain elevated above Action Stage beyond the forecast
period. Elsewhere, river levels are forecast to remain within
Action Stage over the next 5 days.

Please refer to our River Flood Warnings/Statements (FLSMLB) and
Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB) for the most recent stage and
forecast information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  92  75  92 /  30  40  30  50
MCO  76  93  75  93 /  20  30  20  40
MLB  74  92  75  91 /  30  40  30  50
VRB  72  92  73  91 /  30  40  30  50
LEE  77  93  76  93 /  10  30  20  40
SFB  77  94  77  94 /  20  30  20  40
ORL  77  94  76  93 /  20  30  20  40
FPR  73  91  72  90 /  30  40  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Kelly/Combs


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