Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 140826
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
426 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Today...The low level ridge will remain across south FL today
keeping low to mid level SSW/SW flow across the area into the
afternoon. Morning PWATs are progd from 1.8 to 2.0 inches with mid
level temperatures from -7.5 to -8 degs C this afternoon which
should be supportive of scattered storms developing initially along
the east coast sea breeze from southern Brevard to the Treasure
coast and also expect convection to develop and move eastward across
Lake county toward the I-4 corridor into mid to late afternoon. Late
afternoon sea breeze and boundary collisions should spark additional
convection into early evening from Osceola county NNE across
Orange/Seminole and Volusia counties where low level boundaries
collide. Showers and storms should then move toward the east coast
north of Sebastian Inlet into early evening. Some strong storms are
possible with locally heavy rainfall amounts of two to three inches,
gusty winds up to 55 mph and frequent lightning with some of the
strongest storms. High temperatures will reach around 90 along the
coast to the lower 90s across the interior.

Tonight...Ongoing scattered showers and storms are expected across
Osceola county into the northern interior and Volusia county with
boundary collisions from the east and west coast sea breeze and
outflow boundaries into the evening. Some strong evening storms are
possible with locally heavy rainfall amounts, gusty winds and
frequent lightning. Storms are expected to diminish into late
evening with a low coastal shower chance for the overnight hours
along the Treasure coast expected. Lows will drop into the lower to
mid 70s, but warmer along the Brevard and Treasure Coast beaches.

Wednesday-Thursday...Atlantic high pressure will be located east
of the Carolinas and its ridge extending WSW towards central
Florida on Wed and barely moving through Thursday. PWAT values
will increase on Wed (as noted from the GFS forecast soundings
with 2.15 inches in the afternoon). An area of high vorticity will
develop across east central FL on Wed morning and lifts to the
northeast. However, its possible that this in combination with
moisture, a few cells could develop across central FL, mainly
north of the Treasure Coast in the afternoon. By Wednesday night,
very dry air will move in, reaching a minimum on Thu morning of
1.28 inches. From the wind pattern, any development of storms will
be towards the inland areas in the afternoon. Temperatures during
the day will reach the lower 90s.

Friday-Monday...For the end of the week and the weekend, the
atmosphere will remain dry with winds from the southeast, keeping
the lower rain chances towards the inland areas. The Atlantic
ridge (from surface to mid levels) extending towards the Florida
peninsula, will remain across the middle of the state during the
weekend and Monday. Winds will be then light and from the
southeast across the Treasure Coast and from the south or
southwest for the Space Coast and north of Osceola County. High
temperatures could reach the mid 90s this weekend as the local
area get surpressed by the high pressure and the dry air that will
push towards east central Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered convection will develop along the east coast
sea breeze from KMLB-KSUA and also west of KSFB-KISM line into early
to mid afternoon. Have indicated VCTS for srn coastal terminals and
have TEMPO TSRA for nrn terminals from KTIX-KISM northward with
expected afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA which will become most numerous
in the late afternoon and early evening in the KMCO-KDAB corridor
and eastward toward the coast. Evening SHRA/TSRA will diminish vcnty
of nrn terminals into late evening with VFR conds overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...S/SW winds to 10 knots will become S/SSE into the afternoon
hours. Highest shower/thunderstorm chances near shore will be north
of Sebastian Inlet into this afternoon and evening as storms from
the mainland move toward the coast. Seas 1-2 ft srn waters to around
2 ft north of Sebastian Inlet.

Tonight...Southerly winds to 10-15 knots in the evening will
decrease overnight. Scattered evening storms will affect the nrn
waters as convection moves off the mainland. Seas 1-2 ft srn waters
to 2-3 ft offshore north of Sebastian Inlet.

Wed-Sat...Due to the surface ridge extending towards east central
Florida during this period, gentle to moderate breezes will be
from the southeast to south. Seas will range between 2 to 3 feet.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No sites along the Saint Johns river are at or above Flood Stage
however; Astor, Sanford and Lake Harney forecast points remain in
Action Stage. Deland remains just below Action stage and will have
to watch this area if heavy rainfall falls later today. Refer to the
latest Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB) for the latest stage and
forecast information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  89  74 /  60  40  40  30
MCO  92  74  92  75 /  60  50  40  30
MLB  90  75  90  77 /  40  30  20  10
VRB  90  73  90  75 /  30  20  20  10
LEE  91  75  92  76 /  50  30  30  30
SFB  93  75  93  75 /  60  50  40  30
ORL  92  76  93  75 /  60  50  40  30
FPR  90  73  90  74 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Volkmer
LONG TERM...Negron


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